Input | Output |
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Published | 2024/01/02 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau explains the Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza, dismisses speculation of a move against Hezbollah, and stresses the need for lasting peace post-conflict.
Peace advocates and policymakers.
In-depth analysis and context on the Israeli troop withdrawal and implications for future conflicts.
#IsraeliTroopWithdrawal #MiddleEastConflict #Peacebuilding #DurablePeace #Speculation #LowIntensityOperations
Well, howdy there, internet people.
Let's bow again.
So today, we are going to talk about the new developments,
the big news of today, what it means.
We're going to talk about some speculation that has already
occurred, and why that is probably not right.
We're going to talk about what it probably really means,
and where it goes from here.
If you have no idea what I'm talking about,
missed the news. The Israeli government has announced that they are going to be
withdrawing thousands of troops from Gaza. The speculation that immediately
went out is that they are going to redeploy those troops up north and from
there they intend on making a move against Hezbollah. I don't think so. Don't
think so for two reasons. One, that's a really bad idea. That's the
worst idea in a long string of bad ideas. But that alone doesn't mean that it
wouldn't happen. Another development of today that is getting less coverage is
that the US is pulling one of the carriers. If Israel was going to make a
move north and widen this, they absolutely would have informed the
United States. If that was going to occur the U.S. would not be pulling that
carrier unless it is a signal of my name's Paul this is between y'all I'm
done. Which seems really unlikely at this point. So I don't actually believe that's
what it is. So then what is it? It might be exactly what they said that it is.
is. They are going to shift to low intensity operations. That term is still being used.
Please understand, I'll put a video down below on this because we talked about it before
as a possibility. Low intensity does not mean almost peace. It's just a different type of
conflict. So if we were going to try to put this into normal language and take
it out of DOD speak, what's happening? We've talked repeatedly about
how since this started Israel seems to be just speedrunning all of the mistakes
the U.S. made post 2001. This is their version of May 1st 2003. They just hung
up a Mission Accomplished banner. Major combat operations in Iraq have
ended. That's what this is and that's where the shift is likely to occur. It
It doesn't mean it's over by any means.
It means the major operations have ended.
Things will look more like 0405 unless things did not go the way they believe they did.
As far as continuing the mistakes the US made,
the next one would be mission creep,
where they start to expand what they initially
went in there to do.
OK, so this marks the beginning of the decline.
It's not the end.
It's just the start of things slowing down,
if you wanted to put it into normal language.
Okay, so all of this has been horrible, right?
Start to finish, from the perspective of humanity,
this has been horrible.
Nothing changes on New Year's Day.
Israel has stated that they have removed from the field
8,000 opposition combatants.
I have no way of knowing whether or not
that number is accurate.
Let's just say that it is.
I am certain that they have created more than 8,000
opposition combatants throughout this.
Sympathizer became active.
Bystander became sympathizer.
guaranteed. They might have degraded combat effectiveness because of the
removal of supplies and stuff like that, but all that can be replaced. The will to
fight has been re-energized, guaranteed. So what does that mean? Not only was all
this horrible, it also didn't accomplish anything. Nothing changed. Everything you
have seen, everything you will see, because this isn't over, you will see
again. The only thing that can change that is altering the victory conditions
and a focus on establishing a durable peace once it is no longer the top story
every night. That's the only thing that is going to stop this from happening
again.
There is no military solution to this.
There is no decisive victory to be had.
If you don't want to see this again, when it fades from the headlines, your support
has to be behind establishing a durable peace.
And it's going to be a peace that doesn't make anybody happy.
And that's the first thing everybody has to acknowledge.
All the slogans, all the talking points, nobody gets what they want.
But if you don't want to see this again, that's where it has to go.
Because everything we have witnessed in will witness.
It did not end this.
Anyway it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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