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Published | 2024/01/16 |
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Beau says:
Analyzing the Republican primaries, Trump's win in Iowa sets the tone, but his lack of enthusiasm may pose challenges in the general election.
Political observers, voters
Insight into the potential impact of Trump's legal entanglements on his nomination and general election prospects.
#Republican #PresidentialPrimaries #ElectionAnalysis #Trump #DeSantis #Haley
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about
the Republican presidential primaries.
We're gonna talk about Iowa,
we're gonna talk about New Hampshire,
we're gonna talk about Trump, Hailey, DeSantis,
we're gonna talk about the results,
where it goes from here, what happens next, okay.
So if you have somehow missed the news,
Trump won in Iowa.
Santa's looks like came in second.
Haley came in a very close third.
The coverage on this is going to be Trump wins in a landslide from the Republican outlets,
and it's a true statement.
Generally speaking, 10 points is a landslide.
From the outlets that lean towards the Democratic party, you're going to see stuff like Trump
is still the ring to kiss or something like that, showing that he has control over the
Republican Party because for the Democratic Party, it's kind of good for Trump to be the
opposition because he is a very divisive figure, energizes their base, and that enthusiasm is
really important. And that's where the trouble comes in for Trump. Yeah, he won, but almost half
of Republican caucus goers in Iowa wanted somebody else, wanted somebody
other than Trump. That does not speak well for the enthusiasm. Trump being a
divisive character, he needs the Republican Party firmly united behind
him, and he needs independence. If half of Republican caucus-goers want somebody
else, he doesn't have the enthusiasm he needs. And it's important to remember
that Iowa sets the tone. People have taken that to mean that who wins in
Iowa wins the nomination.
That's not what that means.
If that was the case, well, just go ask President Ted Cruz, because that's who won in 2016.
Means it sets the tone.
This isn't a good tone for the former president.
He is supposed to be somebody who has the Republican Party united behind him.
He's supposed to be somebody that the Republican Party is bringing back because the people
really want him.
That's not what the caucus said.
Now, from here what happens?
New Hampshire is next.
The live free or die state is next.
Trump is not polling as well in New Hampshire as he was in Iowa.
Haley is expected to do better in New Hampshire than she did in Iowa.
Now these events may shift that a little bit.
We'll have to wait and see if there's any polling next week, or this week.
The end result of all of this though is that Trump may have turned that saying on himself.
You can't win a primary without Trump, but you can't win a general with him.
The level of enthusiasm and support that he has, I don't think that's going to cut it
in the general, because some of those people who showed up to that caucus
wanting somebody else, they knew what they would get with Trump and
they wanted somebody else.
They may not vote for him in the general, or they may not show up because
they can't bring themselves to vote for Biden.
Trump is still likely to get the nomination, depending on what happens with his legal entanglements.
But unless he can do something about the enthusiasm, he's going to have an issue in the general.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
y'all have a good day.
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