Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2024/01/18 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Iran and Pakistan engaging in strikes over harboring militants, China intervening to prevent escalation, with a misconception cleared about the conflict's origins and potential outcomes.
Foreign policy analysts
In-depth analysis of the historical context and implications of China's intervention in the Iran-Pakistan conflict.
#Iran #Pakistan #Conflict #China #Diplomacy #Misconception #Resolution
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bo again.
So today, we are going to talk about Iran and Pakistan
and what's going on there, the back and forth.
We're going to talk about the risk of it spreading,
whether or not that's likely, what the general consensus is.
And then we're also going to kind of go over the players
and we're going to clear up one major misconception
that I think it's really important
that we get straight. Okay, so if you have no idea what I'm talking about you
missed the news. Iran has been engaging in a series of strikes and they've been
doing it, I mean in a lot of places really, but some of them were in
Pakistan. Iran is saying that they are hitting militant groups hostile to them
that are hiding in Pakistan. In response, Pakistan hit what they are saying were
militant groups hostile to them in Iran. That sounds really unlikely and kind of
weird, right? It's not. Both countries have been claiming that the other has
either intentionally or unintentionally harbored militants hostile to them and
And this has been going on a while.
So that's not as bizarre as it sounds.
The big question with something like this, obviously,
is is it going to escalate?
There's a risk, no doubt.
But I think if it does escalate, the odds
are it will be a low level back and forth
like what we've seen so far.
The odds of it escalating beyond that, it's not zero, but it's not high either, especially
because China has already stepped in.
We talked about it over on the other channel in the roads to foreign policy dynamics and
aid.
We talked about how world powers do not like it when their regional powers, their regional
power allies start to duke it out. So generally they step in pretty quickly and try to normalize
relations and get everybody you know back on the same page. China is reportedly already doing that.
Keep in mind when world powers do this it's not out of any altruistic notion of world
peace or anything like that. If the regional powers start to fight they're going to want their world
power ally to choose a side, and the world power doesn't want to be put in that position.
So they try to squash the conflict.
Okay.
So that's a brief overview.
Now the misconception that definitely needs to be cleared up is that this doesn't have
anything to do with October 7th.
This doesn't have to do with Gaza.
This has to do with January 3rd.
Remember Iran got hit.
There was a major attack and the prevailing belief is that it was a non-state actor.
Iran is going after that non-state actor.
That's what they're saying and some of what they're doing actually tracks with that so
it for what it is, but there is a widespread misconception that somehow this is linked
to Gaza.
It's not.
This is an entirely different thing.
And it's definitely worth keeping that in mind as political talking points get developed.
So short version, too late, right?
Okay.
There is a high probability that this is the end of it because China's already stepped
at. If they're successful, this will be the end of it. If it escalates, your most likely escalation
is going to be just a back and forth like what you've seen so far. There is a risk, you know,
it's a non-zero chance that it does escalate further, but that's unlikely because neither one
of these countries actually wants to go to war with the other one. That would be,
be it would be a draining conflict for both of them that they don't really want.
So hopefully this will resolve itself pretty quickly. Anyway it's just a
thought, y'all have a good day.
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