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Published | 2024/01/24 |
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Beau says:
Analyzing the New Hampshire primary results: Biden won without being on the ballot, Trump underperformed, and independents showed reluctance towards him, potentially impacting his future.
Political analysts
Insights on how these primary results could influence the upcoming political landscape.
#NewHampshire #PrimaryResults #Biden #Trump #Independents
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bob again.
So today we are going to talk about New Hampshire.
We're going to talk about the primary results.
And even though they weren't really surprising, we're going to talk about the
insight we can gain from them because there, there was a little bit of information
that can be gathered here.
Okay.
So starting on the democratic side of the aisle, Biden won.
Biden won a primary where he wasn't on the ballot.
At time of filming, I think Phillips is actually in the lead with 1,500, but now they're counting
all of the write-in ballots and there are still 30,000 unprocessed write-in ballots.
Those will be for Biden, Biden won.
The challengers to Biden, they're going to have a very hard time moving forward.
If they can't beat him when he's not on the ballot, they're going to have a hard time
convincing people to give them money to try to beat him when he is on the ballot.
It's going to make things much, much harder for them from here on out.
The media has been very down on Biden, so I am sure that tomorrow you will see think
pieces on how Biden winning a primary where he wasn't on the ballot is somehow
bad for him, but by normal political thought, it's not.
He's in a really good spot here.
Okay.
Moving on to the Republican side of things, Trump won, but not
by as much as he should have.
Haley performed very well, better than expected.
And there's a bigger piece of information that can kind of inform things a little bit more.
All of the exit polling showed that it was Independence who showed up to vote for Haley.
Now to Republican partisans, that's saying, see, she's not a real Republican. She doesn't have the base.
Yeah, I mean, that's one way to look at it.
Another way to look at it is, independents are so enthusiastic about not having Trump,
they showed up to vote in a Republican primary and voted against him.
It is important to remember, Trump cannot win with just the Republican base.
He needs the independents and based on what we saw from this primary, he doesn't have
them, like not even close to what he would need to win the general. If what
happened in New Hampshire is indicative of what is going to happen nationwide,
he might as well go ahead and hang it up. He doesn't have the votes. At some point
the Republican Party itself is going to have to acknowledge that. My guess is
that the big donors knew this ahead of time, that's why they have already, you
you know, kind of thrown their support behind Haley.
Now the rest of the Republican Party,
the rank and file has to catch up, or they don't.
They continue to ride with Trump,
and they take another loss.
I mean, honestly, okay.
Um, but, uh, I would imagine
that this is going to inform a lot of people
about Trump's real chances,
because without the independents, he can't win.
And he doesn't have them.
Not if what happened in New Hampshire is representative.
He just doesn't have it.
We'll probably see a lot of focus on that in the next few primaries.
And if independents continue to skew away from him, the Republican Party is going to
some hard questions that it's got to ask itself.
So that's where it's at.
Haley, by all rights, should stay in the race.
I know there's already people saying that she should drop out.
No, she should stay in.
At this point, if I was her, I would stay in no matter what because there are other
things that might remove Trump from the race.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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