Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2024/01/30 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau breaks down China's stumbling economy, warns of fear-mongering, and advises staying prepared for misleading narratives on economic recovery.
Economic analysts, policymakers, concerned citizens
In-depth analysis of specific impacts of China's economic challenges on the global market.
#China #ChineseEconomy #US #GlobalMarkets #EconomicAnalysis
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Bo again.
So today we are going to talk about China,
the Chinese economy, what it means for the United States,
and the messaging that is certain to come out.
So we're just gonna try to get out in front of that
because it's probably not going to be accurate.
Okay, so we have talked over the last year or so
about how the Chinese economy is stumbling it hasn't crashed anything
like that but it's not doing well certainly not doing well in the way we
normally think about China's economy okay so to put it into perspective real
quick let's do it this way since 2021 so almost three years almost three years
their stock market has lost about six trillion dollars in value. Their
benchmark CSI is down about a quarter over the last year. Their real estate,
there's a giant real estate company there that is basically being liquidated.
All of this is bad. The economy is not doing well. The stock market recently
They kind of introduced a thing that made it look like you
couldn't short sell.
They introduced controls to try to make sure that it didn't
get even worse.
Now, on a wider view of it, one of the things that we talk
about as a good indicator of overall economic health is a
country's GDP.
Last year, theirs was a 5-2, 5-3, something in there.
It's not bad. I mean, that's not something, it's not in a recession or anything like that.
It is worth understanding that 5.2% or whatever it was, 5.2, 5.3,
that's the lowest expansion they've had in over 30 years. It's really bad.
China is a country that can often see double-digit growth. They are actually
expecting it to be even lower in 2024. So the economy is not doing well. So why
am I telling you all of this? Because undoubtedly the the Republican Party is
going to push a narrative about the economy in the U.S. They will certainly
try to fear monger and scare people with China's economy. The U.S. economy is far
outperforming it in just about every way. And the reason there is a difference is
because the policies that the US engaged in as far as stimulus and stuff like that, China
didn't do that.
So it is taking them longer to recover.
All of those people who said that was a bad idea, you had the two biggest economies engage
in very different approaches.
see which one was right.
So it is worth understanding that when this fear mongering gets brought out, they will
probably wait until China starts making up some gains, because they can't keep going
down forever, right?
It's going to turn around.
And when it does, that's the moment that they're going to come out and say, look, China has
gained 14% or whatever in a narrow period of time, they'll cherry pick a small frame,
a small time frame, and they'll use that to make it look like the Chinese economy is performing
really really well.
When they do that, they're lying to you.
It's worth being ready for this.
It's also worth understanding that a lot of these markets are kind of interlinked.
In this case, for the most part, the US is doing better because China is kind of stumbling
here.
It's something to be aware of because over the next year you're going to see a lot of
it and I'm sure that is going to happen.
They will wait until the stock market there starts to rebound, and they'll say, look,
the Chinese market went up 38% over the last week, and ours has only gone up 4%.
Yeah, well, ours didn't lose a quarter of its value.
That's why.
Just be ready for it, because I know it's coming.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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