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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2024/02/13 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Egypt's potential treaty withdrawal with Israel could have significant diplomatic and military repercussions, impacting border security and regional relationships.
Diplomatic analysts
The full transcript provides a detailed analysis of the potential consequences of Egypt withdrawing from its treaty with Israel, offering insights into the diplomatic and military impacts that could arise from such a decision.
#Egypt #Israel #Diplomacy #Military #Treaty
Well, howdy there internet people, let's bow again.
So today we are going to talk about Egypt
and we are going to talk about the possibility
of Egypt withdrawing from a treaty
because this is something that has come up
and the possibility of it has led to two streams
of commentary about what it means
and they are both wrong and not even just a little bit wrong.
So we are going to kind of go through it
and talk about what would occur and why it matters
if Egypt engages in this.
If you missed the news, don't know what I'm talking about.
Egypt has basically said, if Israel continues
its operations in Ra'afah, that Egypt
is going to withdraw from the peace treaty with Israel.
The operations in Ra'afah being the move
that we said was a really bad idea,
Egypt thinks it's a really bad idea as well.
And this is their way of expressing that.
So the two streams of commentary.
One is saying that if Egypt withdraws, well, that means war.
No, it does not.
Not necessarily.
It doesn't immediately mean that the two countries go to war.
It means they don't have a peace treaty.
Those aren't the same.
The other is suggesting that it doesn't matter at all.
The other stream of commentary is that, who cares?
Oh no, it matters.
It matters a lot.
OK, so let's run through what it actually means.
It doesn't necessarily mean war.
War is a possibility, but not right away.
That's not what it would mean.
It doesn't require that war break out.
But it does mean that Israel cannot count on that border
being safe and calm.
They have to defend it and they have to prepare for the possibility of conflict on that border.
That draws resources, military resources, from other places.
There's that aspect of it.
The other thing to keep in mind is that from the military side of it, the operation in
Gaza has turned a lot of bystanders to sympathetic. People that were
sympathetic turned them active. Israel's current train of thought is, and they
don't have any equipment. We're getting all of that. Yeah, if Egypt stops engaging
in efforts to slow the flow of equipment into Gaza, that's not the case. If Egypt
is just like, oh, that's not our problem to stop that stuff, then it becomes more likely
that more equipment flows into the area, which presents a military issue for Israel.
From the diplomatic side of things, purely diplomatic, this is the most significant diplomatic
pressure that has been applied to Israel since this started.
This means way more than that ICJ thing because this is real.
This is something that can be enforced.
This is something that has actual impacts.
It's not just paper.
Egypt engaging in this means Israel has to counter it.
The other thing to keep in mind is Egypt is a country that historically has been more
in favor of normalization when it comes to Israel.
If Egypt withdraws, other Arab states, they're going to look really bad if they just give
Israel a pass.
This matters.
This is more significant than the ICJ.
There are a whole lot of people who are hanging their hopes on something that has absolutely
no possibility of really being effective and ignoring things that will. Egypt
engaging in this, if they follow through with this, it's going to have an impact.
Whether or not it's enough to totally sway Israel, I don't know. Then the other
question, can Egypt actually do this? You know, we talk about a lot of
internet solutions, you know, bumper sticker solutions to the problem, and then
when you follow them down the chain, yeah, you realize they won't actually work
and it's just something that sounds good on the internet but has zero chance of
working in real life. Because, and many times it's because the country that
would be required to do it can't actually implement it for other foreign
policy concerns. Can Egypt actually do this? Can they follow through with this?
Yeah, I think so. I think so. What would happen? The U.S. would be like, no, bad
Egypt. No, don't do that. But that's it. The U.S. isn't gonna get super mad about
it, and the U.S. may be like, okay, since you did this, you know, we can't have our
friend nations fighting. That means we can't give you weapons anymore. You
better go see the UK, better go see Germany. There's not any huge diplomatic
repercussions for Egypt. I mean, there's verbal ones, there's
rhetoric ones, there's press release, you know, consequences to doing this, but all
of them have a workaround. You know, when we talked about the idea of the US
cutting aid to Israel and we followed the chain down. You realize that it
doesn't really do anything? This is kind of the same situation. Anything that
would be done to Egypt doesn't really do anything. So they absolutely
have the ability to follow through with this if they choose to. There's not
enough there's not enough pressure that would be brought to bear the to stop
them. So now we have to see two things. One, does the Ra'afah operation continue?
And two, if it does, does Egypt follow through on its threat? Anyway, it's just a
thought. Y'all have a good day.
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