Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2024/02/14 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau analyzes a special election in New York, underscoring the impact of Trump's endorsement, polling inaccuracies, and a shift towards centrism in Democratic strategies.
Political observers
Further details on the specific implications of the election results for future political strategies and the role of progressive candidates.
#ElectionAnalysis #PoliticalStrategy #TrumpEndorsement #Centrism #PollingAccuracy
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about New York
and the third district,
the results of that special election,
how everything played out,
and we are going to talk about some takeaways
that go a little bit beyond just providing the results.
If you don't know what's going on,
this is a special election for the seat vacated by Santos.
The Democratic Party picked up the seat.
Swazie won.
Okay, and that's as good a place to start as any.
Right now, I guess I should say, technically, he is projected to win, with 90-something
percent reporting.
The results are 53.9% in favor of the Democrat, 46.1% in favor of the Republican.
Please remember, this was a red seat.
pretty big margin of victory right there. Now this race was kind of seen as a
bellwether for 2024. This is going to be taken as good news for the Democratic
Party and they can take it that way. Yeah, the Republican Party and Trump in
particular was very unhappy because this was seen as kind of a forecast on how
his leadership of the Republican Party is going not well. He had some things to
say about that. He called the Republican candidate a very foolish woman, very
foolish woman quote, and went on to say she didn't endorse me and I tried and
tried to straddle the fence. She didn't endorse me and tried to straddle the
defense, when she would have easily won if she understood anything about modern-day politics
in America.
Apparently, Trump believes that if she had just tied herself to him, that it would have
swung this election by like seven points.
Seven points.
His endorsement doesn't swing a primary seven points.
points is huge but he cannot admit that his stunt when it comes to how
everything is going in the House is costing Republicans their seats. His
leadership is not good. He doesn't want to admit that so he's going to blame the
very foolish woman. I would like to point out that even Trump has come to terms
with something because when he was talking about endorsements he said I
have an almost 99% endorsement success rate in primaries. Even Trump is
starting to realize can't win a primary without him, can't win a general with
him. He's even starting to qualify his own statements with that. He says I have
an almost 99% endorsement success rate in primaries and a very good number in
the general elections. Yeah, very good number of losses. Seven points. Believes
he could swing an election seven points. If an endorsement from him was worth
that he should have endorsed himself and the last time he might have won. Another
Another thing to note from this is the polling.
Something we have been talking about on this channel is that once again, the way the polling
is being done, it's not going to produce accurate results and it's going to skew in favor of
Republicans.
Go back and look at the polling for this.
Sure, it showed the Democratic candidate in the lead by a few points, but it was within
the margin of error.
And then go look at the coverage, because they played it up.
Coming down to the wire, within the margin of error, everything, it's super tense, seven
points.
Have to be a really bad poll for that to be within the margin of error.
The polling is being conducted the same way that has created the illusion of a red wave
coming.
This is the result.
This is really good news for the Democratic Party.
There's no way to take it in any other fashion, not honestly.
Now there are still issues because this candidate very much ran as, well, Biden ran as supercentrist.
Normal, boring, that's what won.
The idea of getting a progressive, of getting progressive candidates in 2024 is shrinking
large part because of progressives right now. So you're going to see a lot of
candidates, even candidates that you know are progressive, use a lot of centrist
rhetoric. So just be ready for it. Those are the key takeaways. It's good news for
the Democratic Party. It is going to drive them to be more centrist because
they have to pick up those votes that the progressives are saying they're not
going to give to them. And you're going to see progressives that are in office,
people that you know are progressive. You're going to see them adopt more
centrist rhetoric. Probably won't affect their votes, but they're going to
campaign that way. So you should be aware of that. The Republican Party might learn
lesson here because all of the stuff going on in the house, all of the
dysfunction, the disarray, it definitely played into this. So they might get the
message but given the fact that they're still taking their marching orders from
dear leader and he's not gonna accept any responsibility for it, it was that
very foolish woman. They may not change, but the teachable moment is there. It
depends on whether or not they want to learn. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all
Have a good day.
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