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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2024/03/28 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau provides updates on Ukraine-Russia dynamics, including aid from France, the Black Sea fleet's status, and Putin's narrative challenged by Belarus.
Global citizens
Detailed analysis and historical context
#Ukraine #Russia #Geopolitics #Aid #Recruitment
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about Ukraine and Russia.
And we're gonna run through some of the major developments
that have occurred there
and how they may set the scene for things later.
And just provide a little bit of an update.
Okay, so starting off,
as far as the United States is concerned,
things are still tied up
far as getting aid to Ukraine. France is stepping up. They've provided some
equipment recently and indicated that they plan on providing a whole lot more.
Putin recently indicated that he didn't really see a fight with NATO directly
coming anytime soon, but did indicate that any F-16s that were
sent to Ukraine, well, they would be targets. I mean, that kind of goes without
saying. Of course they would be. I don't think anybody in NATO was under the
impression that those aircraft would be given a pass, that they're going to be
Ukrainian aircraft. I don't think that that was... I don't really think that was
something that needed to be clarified. The Black Sea fleet, it is
ineffective at this point. You know, losing a single warship to a country
that realistically doesn't really have a functioning Navy, that's a big
deal. Having an entire fleet basically, having it rendered combat ineffective is something else,
and that has occurred. Ukraine has hit ship after ship after ship. Now, one of the big questions
about this that has come in is, is this going to make Ukraine going after Crimea easier? Does that
that mean that Russia isn't going to be able to get supplies into Crimea? No,
that's not what it means. These are devastating losses for Russia as far as
equipment. This stuff takes a long time to replace and repair and it impacts them
on the at the high stakes poker table. It impacts them there in the masters of the
universe stuff. As far as the conflict itself, these are big wins for Ukraine. At
the same time, one thing that Russia has done that has been really smart,
especially in comparison to the rest of how things have gone, is they have put a
lot of effort into upgrading rail. So they'll probably still be able to get
supplies through that route. Rail is hard to disrupt through most conventional
methods and it's easy to repair. So what you will probably see at some point
either at the same time as any potential future Ukrainian offensive into Crimea
or if Ukraine ever wants Russia to think they're gonna go into Crimea, you'll
probably see special operations or partisan operations targeting the rails.
They have better capabilities as far as keeping them down longer and then
you would probably see that in conjunction with drone use going after
the attempts to repair it and that's how they would attempt to disrupt the
supplies. The thing about rail is that it is easy to fix so it has to be done
in a certain way and it normally takes boots on the ground to knock them out
for any lengthy amount of time.
Now the other thing that has occurred, Putin was dead set on trying to tie Ukraine to what
happened in Moscow.
Put a lot of effort into that, Belarus, their ally, kind of let the cat out of the bag on
that one and said that those responsible for the operation in Moscow weren't actually headed to
Ukraine, they were headed to Belarus and they changed course due to security concerns.
That really weakens Putin's position and the way he can try to frame it.
it. So that narrative may slowly start to die out. We'll see. He's indicated that he
has some other evidence, but we haven't seen it yet. My guess is by now, if it was concrete,
it would be very public because it would be a massive boost for his side and recruitment,
which is struggling.
So that's just a brief overview of what's going on.
And the Ukrainian side, what they need is aid.
They need equipment and they need the NATO supplied aircraft up and running.
That's what they need.
Russia needs, they need people. They need recruitment in a big way. So that's a brief
overview. If we have time, we'll get into some of the other stuff later. Anyway, it's just a thought.
y'all have a good day.
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