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Published | 2024/03/29 |
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Beau says:
Beau analyzes two foreign policy news items with potential dual interpretations, discussing France's UN resolution and US military aid to Israel, offering insights into Biden's leverage and strategic approach.
Foreign policy analysts
Insights into the evolving foreign policy landscape and potential consequences.
#ForeignPolicy #France #US #UN #Israel
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about two different news items,
both dealing with foreign policy, both dealing
with the same subject.
And both of them could mean two different things.
Each news item has two possible options for what it means.
But both of the news items are kind of big news.
And I feel like it's information we're going to see again.
So what we're going to do is go through both of the news items
and both of the options for each item.
The first item deals with France.
Recently, the French have been kind of flexing their foreign
policy muscles at that international poker game where
everybody's cheating.
they have sat down to play.
And the reporting says that they are floating their own resolution up at the UN.
It's a ceasefire resolution.
And I know what you're thinking.
You're like, didn't we just, yeah, but this one's a little different.
According to the reporting, which is kind of widespread at the moment, it has already
shown up in Israeli news. The draft resolution, it calls for a ceasefire, it
condemns Hamas, and it recognizes a Palestinian state. That's big news. So
what are the options? Option one, they're doing this because they're done. They're
done. They don't like what they're seeing on their screens. They don't like the way
the AIDS situation is progressing. They know that a Palestinian state is the end game.
So they're just saying, give them a seat at the table now. Let's get this started.
That is option one, and it's completely possible. Option two is that maybe the U.S. was aware
of this. Maybe they even encouraged it. Why? Because then Biden can call Netanyahu and
be like, hey, we need to talk about Rafa and the AIDS situation. You don't want to do that.
What makes you think we won't just let this resolution go through too? We've already done
it wants, come on over, let's have some ice cream and talk about things.
It's also completely possible, which is it?
Don't know, but it doesn't matter.
If it is option one, Biden still has that leverage.
If it is the French government acting on their own, Biden still got that leverage.
Netanyahu is not a supporter of a two-state solution, this is not something that he's going to be happy about.
So, this move, whether it was coordinated or not, it provided Biden with more leverage than he had.
Whether he uses it, we don't know.
Okay, so what's the next news item? The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
said something and it's definitely worth noting. It's talking about Israel and he
says, although we've been supporting them with capability, they've not received
everything they've asked for. Some of that is because they've asked for stuff
that we either don't have the capacity to provide or not willing to provide, not right now.
I think it was last week, maybe the week before, we talked about this as a possibility and that's
one of the options. One of the options from this is that Biden is buying time. When we talked about
and I think I said that it could be framed as, you know, we have this stuff going on in Ukraine,
we've got Taiwan, we have our own needs. Political winds just aren't with you right now. We'll get
you your stuff. It's just going to take a minute. And that is definitely a tactic that might be used
if you have an ally that you believe is about to make a horrific mistake and you're trying to talk
talk him out of it. So it could be that. I mean we talked about it before any of
this broke. At the same time something that is equally as possible is that
they're asking for things that are that are incredibly common and they're things
that have already been shipped to Ukraine or elsewhere or the U.S. is at its readiness
level.
The U.S. never runs out of ammo.
They have levels that they maintain when the amount of ammo of any particular type, when
it falls into that range, they order more.
They might be asking for things that we legitimately don't have, but if you go back to the quote,
some of that is because they've asked for stuff that we either don't have the capacity
to provide, so readiness level stuff, or not willing to provide, not right now.
I guess a third option is that it's both.
So this is not conditioning aid.
We've talked about how hard it is in reality to deny an ally military aid when they are
saying that they need it.
That is a difficult task, regardless of anything else.
you can prioritize and that may be what's happening here. But it could also
be that they're just asking for stuff that the US can't provide. So both of
these little pieces of news, they're gonna fit into puzzles next week and
And we'll hear more about it, so just kind of keep this in mind.
Again, the other thing about the French resolution is that it's
a draft and it's early, they change, but just the reporting that it is being
considered to recognize a Palestinian state, that gives Biden more leverage
than he's had, so we'll see if it gets used anyway, it's just a thought y'all
Have a good day.
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