| Input | Output |
|---|---|
| Link | Youtube |
| Published | 2024/04/06 |
| Theme | |
| Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Iran signals desire to avoid wider conflict with the US, strategizing amidst tensions with Biden and Netanyahu, focusing on a proportional response.
Foreign policy analysts
Insight into the potential consequences of miscalculated responses and the impact on regional stability.
#ForeignPolicy #Iran #US #Biden #Netanyahu
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about signaling
on the foreign policy scene.
We're going to talk about how that signal might be read
by some and then how it'll be read by others
and run through some of the developments that have occurred
because there's been a few
and just kind of go over everything. Okay, so what happened, right? Iran
signaled, they sent a message to the United States, and in short it said stay
out of the way so you don't get hit. Some people undoubtedly will take that and
say look they're trying to push the US around because they don't respect Biden
and blah blah blah. Those people with an actual foreign policy take will probably
say something along the lines of well what they're saying is they hit a
diplomatic facility we're going to respond but we don't want a wider
regional conflict and that would be a pretty good read on it. My understanding
is that the U.S. sent a message back saying don't use this as a pretext to
hit U.S. facilities. There might be some signaling in that as well. So it
certainly appears that Iran is not looking to spark a wider regional
conflict and I know the question is but they're always chanting and they hate
the US and all of that stuff yeah that may be true but contrary to the popular
depiction in the United States they are not unlearned uneducated or unread if you
are Iran and you're sitting at that international poker game where
everybody's cheating, what have you seen the last few hands, and by that I
mean the last few days, when it comes to Biden and Netanyahu?
Sure, they may still be sharing a pile of chips, but it doesn't appear that
Biden is showing Netanyahu all of his cards right now.
If you're Iran, that's in your interests.
You don't want to create a situation where you push them back together.
That's why it would be the smart move for them to try to avoid creating a situation
where the US feels like it has to respond as well.
In fact, there was another little statement, something along the lines of, don't fall
into Netanyahu's trap, basically saying we're not trying to create a situation
that starts a regional conflict. Okay, so that's the signaling. The foreign policy
read on that, I would imagine from almost everybody, I'm filming this last night, is
is going to be that Iran is signaling
they don't want a wider war, and that tracks.
That's kind of been their position on this.
Now, the obvious question, okay,
well then how are they gonna respond?
There's little bits of information coming out.
You don't really know.
If I had to guess, drones launched from outside of Iran.
So they have a little bit of deniability, just like the strike they're responding to.
Now there are questions about whether or not this is really going to happen because a lot
of people in the U.S., they may have an inaccurate view of Iran. I think the
best indication that at least Netanyahu believes they're going to respond is
that from what I understand GPS doesn't work in Tel Aviv right now. That's a
clear indication that they believe there's going to be a response. So Iran
has to calculate and they have to try to figure out what is going to be viewed as
an acceptable proportional response. That's what things hinge on really.
They're not going to want to do something that will be perceived as
over the line, overwhelming, an overreaction, because that might push
Netanyahu and Biden back together against them. So it's all up to how they
make that calculation and whether or not they're they're good at it and then if
it occurs then we all have to wait and see what Netanyahu does. That's how
things are shaping up at the moment. I imagine there will be more developments
by the time y'all watch this or shortly after.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
y'all have a good day.
{{Shirt}}
{{EasterEgg}}