| Input | Output |
|---|---|
| Link | Youtube |
| Published | 2024/04/14 |
| Theme | |
| Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau explains the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, stressing the pivotal role of interdiction efforts in preventing a regional conflict.
Global citizens, peace advocates
Insight into the potential humanitarian impact and broader geopolitical repercussions of a regional conflict
#Israel #Iran #RegionalConflict #InterdictionEfforts #Peacekeeping
Well, howdy there, internet people.
Let's bow again.
So today, we are going to talk about responses
and responses to responses.
We're going to talk about the region and the risk,
and we will go through what could happen.
The one thing that kinda messed with a lot of people's
expectations of what was going to occur
and how things might unfold,
and just run through all of the developments. Okay, so if you're not aware,
right now at time of filming there is a whole bunch of stuff headed towards
Israel and it is coming from a number of locations. We're talking about drones,
rockets, all kinds of stuff measuring in the hundreds reportedly. Okay so why is
this happening? It's happening because of the hit on the Iranian diplomatic
facility. This is a response to that. It is very important to understand that
this doesn't actually have to do with Gaza. This is a separate issue. This is a
separate thing. It's important to understand that because odds are one or
the other will finish before the other one. They are two separate issues. Now
odds are Iran will frame some of it around Gaza, but that's not what it's
about. Don't get me wrong, that didn't help matters, but the only real
connection is that when Israel hit the facility, one of the targets was an Iranian who provided
supplies.
The Iranian response is because they hit the facility, which is its diplomatic soil.
It's Iranian soil.
And when it occurred, pretty much everybody, regardless of where they stood, was like,
well, they have to respond. It's kind of inevitable. They don't have a choice
because of the regional superpower games at stake. This is that response. That's what it's about.
So Iran has signaled that this is it. They don't want a wider conflict.
correct, this is their response, after this they will consider the matter concluded.
And that probably would have worked, and that's probably what would have happened if Iran
had done what everybody expected them to, which was launch this stuff from outside of
their own territory, use their proxies.
understand that happened but there's also a whole lot of reporting that
suggests that a lot of this came from inside of Iran proper. That changes
things. Why is Iran responding? Because Israel hit their soil in an official
manner. Iran is now hitting Israeli soil in an official manner. The same thing
applies. Israel is probably going to want to respond to this. The expectation
was to just use proxies. Had they done that, this would probably be over tonight.
Because they didn't, we don't know. So what does what does it hinge on? Whether
or not this really turns into a large regional conflict, what's the
deciding factor? Interdiction efforts. Right now a whole bunch of countries are
trying to stop everything that's in the air. My understanding is that US and
and planes from the UK have knocked out more than a hundred drones that are inbound.
If all of the countries that are trying to stop the response, if they play it perfectly,
they can probably knock down the amount of incoming that actually penetrates into single
digit percentages, which would be ideal.
If that happens and the stuff that gets through doesn't hit anything major or doesn't hit
something that's heavily populated, the Israeli response might be kind of low-key.
If a whole bunch gets through or only a little bit gets through but it hits something major,
causes a bunch of loss, the Israeli response will probably be very pronounced to the point
where Iran might feel the need to respond.
This is how a regional conflict starts.
So if you're hoping to avoid a regional conflict, you should be hoping that everybody involved
in stopping what is incoming is really on the ball.
Okay, so as far as low-end responses.
If there's a low-end response from Israel in response to the Iranian move, the biggest
loser is probably going to be Russia.
They're going to fill it the most.
Because if you're Israel and this occurred, what's your number one...the number one place
you don't want to be here anymore?
The place that produces these drones.
the same drones that Russia is using in Ukraine. So it would damage them more
than just about anybody else. If it is a high-end response, it turns into a
regional conflict, the people that will suffer the most will be the
Palestinians. So this is not a good turn of events, and the defining factor is
that Iran launched some of this stuff from within their own territory. Had
this exact same thing, same number, everything else been the same, but it was
all done through proxy forces, had it occurred that way, the odds of this
turning into something much larger would be pretty slim. But because they launched
from their own soil, there's a risk here. There's a risk here. And then it
depends, from there it depends on what air defense is doing. How well they, how
way how well they stop everything. Now right now the stuff is still in the air.
This is going to take a while to get there. I'm not even sure that by the time
y'all watch this anything will have landed, but that's what's going on. We can
And there is reason to hope that the efforts to stop what is in the air are pretty successful.
If that occurs, we stand a good chance of getting out of this without a regional conflict.
If it doesn't, there's a pretty high risk of things going sideways.
Anyway, it's just a thought, y'all have a good day.
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