| Input | Output |
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| Published | 2024/04/19 |
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| Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau analyzes a concerning military move with slim chances of success, risking worsening humanitarian issues and political outcomes.
Policymakers, Activists, Concerned Citizens
Full context and detailed analysis of the news developments discussed by Beau.
#MilitaryMove #HumanitarianCrisis #PoliticalImpact #USPolicy #ConflictMitigation
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about the news
coming out over there.
We're going to go through the developments,
the plans, the likelihoods, the problems.
We'll talk about how it is likely to impact
the American political landscape
and just kind of run through the information
as we know it right now.
Longtime viewers of the channel,
I wanna go ahead and give you a heads up on something.
Normally, when I start off a video
by correcting information,
eventually there's good news.
There's not here.
Okay.
So the reporting says that the United States
has signed off on the move into Ra'afah.
This has been taken and kind of assumed to be
that the U.S. signed off on the same
plan, that they signed off on a major offensive in Tiraffa.
As I understand the operation,
it is not
a major offensive. It is just below
what would count as a major offensive. If they did everything that they planned to
do at the same time,
it would be a major offensive,
but they're dividing it up.
That is what we like to call a distinction without a difference.
Nobody cared about whether or not it was technically a major offensive.
That wasn't what people cared about.
They cared about whether or not the plan would mitigate civilian loss
and alleviate the humanitarian situation.
That's what people actually cared about.
Does this plan do that? Sure, if it survives first contact,
if you're not familiar with that phrasing, the answer is no, because no plan survives first contact.
The plan, as I understand it, is to divide the area up into very small neighborhoods,
evacuate that neighborhood, and then slow roll it.
If everything goes perfectly, sure, sure. What are the odds of it going perfectly?
I give it less than a 5% chance. This can go sideways very, very easily.
So, from the perspective of, will it alleviate the issues that people were actually concerned about?
Probably not. Then you have to look at will it achieve the military goal. You,
person at home, would you voluntarily engage a superior force that has you
outmanned, outgunned, has more resources, better intelligence, just across the board,
would you engage them at a time and place of their choosing? When you say no,
because that sounds like a really bad idea, realize the only people who are
And people who are going to show up to fight are going to be the most inept people on the
Palestinian side.
They're going to be people that are so bad at what they do, they're not worth going after.
So I do not think that it will alleviate the issues.
And I don't actually think it will be successful militarily, politically, sure, it will probably
give Netanyahu a win because he gets to do what he said he was going to do.
Okay, from the American political landscape, looking at it from there, you're giving
people exactly what they asked for and nothing that they wanted. Nobody cared
whether or not it was technically a major offensive. The goal was to stop
people from fleeing and believe me I understand. American policymakers are
going to be like doing it this way we'll cut the number of people who flee in
half, even if it goes sideways, and that's probably a true statement.
But I mean, how are y'all going to decide which spokesperson is the person that has
to walk out and say, well, it's only a couple hundred thousand?
This is not going to satisfy anybody.
If this goes sideways, nobody, when they're looking at that footage, they're not counting
They're going to see streams of people headed into areas with no infrastructure, which is
what they wanted to avoid.
This isn't going to satisfy anybody.
And then you have the other thing that can occur with the combatants.
If you have an evacuated area, yeah, the newer, less experienced people, they will try to
engage there.
Where will the experienced ones engage from?
Just outside the evacuated area, right?
And then when there's return fire, what does the footage show?
an area that was said to be safe.
You'd better be ready to have the calls to cut offensive aid increase because the odds
are they're going to.
I am 99% certain that that scenario will play out.
Palestinian fighters aren't, they're not uneducated on this topic. In many cases
that they developed the strategies. This is not a good idea. There are a whole
bunch of ways that it can go bad. Yes, if it goes perfectly, it would reduce the
civilian loss. It would mitigate the humanitarian situation. That's all true.
But the odds of it all going perfectly are just so, so small. And once it starts
to go bad it can it can kind of snowball then the other piece of reporting is
that it's saying that the US kind of traded signing off on this to get
Netanyahu to agree to a a low-level response to Iran? Yeah, I mean, that
could have happened. That probably would, and from a Masters of the
Universe foreign policy level, I understand the trade that's made there
because if a regional conflict does pop off because of the response, then it would be
worse for the people in Rafa. I understand that. Again, I wouldn't want to be the spokesperson
trying to explain that to the american people. This is not good. This is not good
news in any way. For those people who are undoubtedly going to come out and say
but even if it goes bad it's it's still better than before. I wouldn't make that
argument yet. I know that there are people already kind of thinking, well, you
know, it really does cut it in half. If it doesn't snowball, sure. You don't know
that yet. You do not know that yet. And again, walking out and saying that it's
only a couple hundred thousand fleeing, that is not a statement that I would
want to make. That is not a statement that is going to satisfy anybody. Not
when the situation is what it is up north. Not when there's no infrastructure
to where they're going to. I have heard the rumor about the plan to deal with
those people who flee. I will believe that when I see it. I do not, I don't think that
the logistics to handle that kind of flow is in place. I understand that they're saying
they're ready. That's going to be a lot harder to deal with than I think people
are imagining. So the the short version of this is that you have a very very
small chance that this goes well. And by well, I mean doesn't create a large
increase when it comes to the humanitarian situation and the loss.
Odds are it won't go well, the odds are it won't go well, and rough anticipation is
that it would be slightly less than the first initial wave.
it's it's probably going to get bad anyway it's just a thought y'all have a
a good day.
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