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| Published | 2024/04/26 |
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Beau says:
An offer from elements within Hamas for a two-state solution, including laying down arms, raises questions about motives and potential shifts in dynamics, amidst regional developments and US-backed plans.
Policy analysts, peace negotiators
Insights on the potential implications of rejecting the peace offer and the importance of exploring shifts within Hamas for peace negotiations.
#PeaceOffer #Hamas #TwoStateSolution #USPlan #RegionalSecurity #Negotiations
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about the peace offer.
Before I go any further, let me stop right here and say,
don't get excited.
There has been a development.
It is worth looking at.
And it can probably inform us about some other things.
But it is unlikely that this means
pieces, you know, right around the corner. Okay, so if you haven't heard, what
happened? An offer has been extended, kind of. It's very tentative. It hasn't been
put on paper yet, as far as I know, but a rough sketch has emerged and it is from
elements within Hamas, not all of Hamas. It says that they will lay down their
arms in exchange for a two-state solution. If that was the entirety of the deal
this would be really good news. However, there are some other things to it that
are kind of non-starters. The capital of the new Palestinian state would be in
Jerusalem. That seems incredibly unlikely. There are other little tidbits, but that
alone is enough to know that the devil is in the details on this one. Okay,
So the question is, is this a bad real offer or is it a bad faith offer? I've
seen people already say, well it's just a PR stunt. I don't believe that at
all. The inclusion of them suggesting that they would lay down their arms, this
This isn't a PR stunt.
It's not.
That message is going to be picked up by a whole bunch of other groups.
They're going to see that.
They're not going to want to give up that element for a PR stunt.
So it's probably a bad, real offer, which means it has to be entertained.
I don't think anybody believes that what was initially offered is what would happen,
but it has to be entertained.
And then you have to kind of wonder why, intent, you know, why is this offer being made now?
And that's where it gets interesting.
Inside every organization, you have different kinds of people.
You have those people that are just the rank and file.
They're doing what they feel they have to do.
You have the true believers, those people who are down with the cause, whatever the
cause is.
And then you have those people who are there for power.
And that's where this seems to be originating.
Because even though the territory claims are a rough sketch, there's no plan for a system
of government, it's not even written down yet.
One of the things that has already come out is that, hey, if this happens, the militant
wing could just fold into the new national army. That's one of the things
that they want. If the militant wing folds into the new national army, what
happens to the commanders? Well, they become generals. They get to retain
their power. That's where it seems to be coming from. Now, in and of itself is that
bad thing? No, I mean stranger things have happened. So that by itself isn't a
reason to reject it. At the same time, that also leads us to the question of why
now? Why are they trying to get a seat at the table now? And there's really, there's
There's really only one answer to that.
The US-backed plan for the day after, it's probably further along than we think.
Even me, and I've been pretty optimistic about the whole thing.
If you look at recent events, you can see it.
We've talked about it over and over again.
What do you need?
You need a regional security force.
You need dump trucks full of aid, cash, money.
You need the path to the two-state solution, the system of governance, all of that stuff.
Start with the regional security force.
One of the big concerns was whether or not Arab states would be willing to commit because
for that to work, that regional security force, it has to have troops that have the interest
of the Palestinians at heart.
You would need Arab nations to participate, and there was a big concern about that because
we didn't know whether or not Arab nations would really want to be seen as cooperating
with Israel.
Arab nations shot down Iranian drones on behalf of Israel.
They're on board.
They have that.
Now, you still have to have the western component, the side that would make Israel feel more
comfortable.
But my guess is that exists as well.
And even if it doesn't, that's a whole lot easier to get.
So even if commitments haven't been drawn up and there's nothing official, the big stumbling
block is out of the way.
Then you need the aid money.
It's there.
The dump trucks full of cash, as I've said, not all of it is there for a full reconstruction
and all of that stuff.
But there's enough to get started, and if the Arab nations are on board with the regional
security force, they'd probably be willing to come across with some cash.
They probably have the money.
Then you have to take a look at the possibility of a two-state solution and how it would be
governed.
The U.S. plan has been the revitalized Palestinian Authority.
From where I sit, yeah, they got a lot of work to do on that one.
There have been some changes, but the PA, the Palestinian Authority, they don't have
the best reputation with the average Palestinian.
So from where I have been sitting, they have a lot of work to do.
The thing is, you know who would have a better view of that than me?
The commanders who made this offer.
They might be further along than that than we know.
They might have gotten somewhere and us not be aware of it.
I would imagine that these commanders have sources within the PA that give them much
better information than what I have access to.
That means they have it all.
So the reason this may have occurred and the reason it might be a bad real offer is because
Because if you look at the plan for the day after, I really wish they had called it something
else.
Every time I say that I think of a movie from the 1980s and it did not go well.
If you look at that plan, there's not a seat at the table for Hamas, like at all.
They may be trying to get a seat because they think it's going to work.
Now if that's the case, are they going to get a seat?
If it was me making the decision, yeah, let's see what happens because you can move faster
towards peace that way.
The foreign policy masters of the universe math?
No, they won't.
probably won't. The math on that is going to be that there are different
kinds of people and there are way more true believers than there are people who
are interested in power. Those true believers, they want a Palestinian
state and they're willing to lose their life over it if they find out that a
commander is not willing to lose a little bit of power for it, there will
probably be an internal dispute. And when those internal disputes occur,
generally speaking, the true believers always win because they're willing to go
to greater lengths. So the offer has been extended kind of. Again, it's not in
writing yet, but it was floated publicly. I don't think it's just a PR stunt. There
are definitely issues with it that will stop the proposal as is from moving
forward, and maybe it can inform our view of how far along they are when it comes
to the plan for the day after.
Again, it's worth remembering that an Israeli minister talked about how, I think he called
them the coalition that defended Israel, that they should bring those in to the plan for
the day after.
The pieces are all there to suggest that this is an attempt of those in power trying to
get a seat at the table. We don't know that, but that's what it looks like. It
should be taken seriously. They should talk about it. If it's a bad role offer,
they would know pretty quickly, you know, if there was a willingness to shift on
some things, but the fact that they offered to lay down their arms indicates
it's not just a PR stunt. That's not something they would say just on a PR
side of things, and it's a big deal just for that. Everything else I said, I mean
it is what it is, but that statement is huge because it demonstrates a shift
among elements within Hamas. Again, this isn't official, all-encompassing
yet either. This seems like something that they're floating before committing
the whole organization to it. It would be very wise to entertain it and see
where it goes. Rejecting it out of hand is a bad move across the board. Anyway,
It's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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