| Input | Output |
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| Link | Youtube |
| Published | 2024/05/03 |
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| Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau outlines a potential game-changer in Middle Eastern diplomacy, involving Saudi Arabia, Israel, the US, and Palestine, with far-reaching implications.
Diplomacy observers
In-depth analysis and background information on the history and context of the relationships between the involved countries.
#MiddleEast #Diplomacy #SaudiArabia #Israel #UnitedStates
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Bo again.
So today, we are going to talk about some big, big news
when it comes to foreign policy, diplomacy,
everything in the region and it has three different pieces.
Now, each one of these pieces we have talked about
on the channel at some point in time.
it appears that they all just got tied together and not to overstate it but if
this moves forward it would literally alter the entire landscape in the Middle
East. Primarily it involves three countries. There's another country that's
really important later but we'll we'll get to that. Starting off Saudi Arabia
Israel, and the United States. Saudi Arabia for a long time has wanted a
defense pact with the US along with some trade agreements and stuff like that, but
the defense pact is the big one. Israel has wanted normalized international
relationships with Saudi Arabia. It's incredibly important to them because
Saudi Arabia has a lot of the holy sites. So the trends that start there, they
spread throughout the Middle East. Now to the US, this is all good. A defense pact
with Saudi Arabia, well that's good for them, it's good for the US. Normalized
relationships between those two countries, that's good for the US because
of the whole balance of power thing. We've talked about it a bunch. Three regional powers, Israel,
Saudi Arabia, and Iran. If you get Saudi Arabia and Israel to be friends, it allows the U.S.,
and by friends I mean have shared interests, it allows the U.S. to deprioritize the Middle East,
which is a long-term strategic goal. You don't have to worry about it so much if you have two
regional power allies that are in the region. You can you can pay attention to
other things. So everybody's happy with this. Everybody gets what they want and
each one of these items for a long time has been viewed as a separate entity.
They all got tied together. I mean the long-term strategy of the US isn't like
an agreed thing. The two agreements are the Defense Pact and the normalization
of the relationship. The US move on this would be real simple. Hey Saudi Arabia,
we'll give you your Defense Pact. You, you know, establish better ties with
Israel. Everybody's happy. Israel gets what they want. The Saudis get what they want. The U.S. gets, you know,
a better position. But there's another country that has been thrown into the mix. Palestine.
The way this is currently set up, and the way it's being described, is
is that the Saudis get their defense treaty, or not a treaty, pact, sorry.
Israel gets that relationship stabilized and there has to be a quote credible and
irreversible pathway to a Palestinian state. And they all go forward or none of
of them go forward. This is currently being framed as the Saudis really, really
wanting it. I mean, sure, sure. I can see that as being the case. They
definitely want that. Do they want it bad enough to say that it's a condition?
I mean I don't know about that especially since every US move has been
angling in this direction. The normalized relationship between Saudi
Arabia and Israel that is something that Israeli foreign policy really wants,
really wants. It appears that the United States brought out the big chips at the
international poker game where everybody's cheating. It's either that or
the Saudis saw that the US was angling in that direction and was like, you know
what? We can look great in the Middle East. Let's just make this a condition.
We know the U.S. will go for it and maybe they initiated it. So this, if this moves
forward, it alters not just the map. We're not just talking about the
creation of a state for Palestinians. It alters the Mideast because eventually
the Defense Pact, it could move to include other countries like Israel or
Bahrain or Palestine. Eventually you might end up with that MEDO, the Middle
treaty organization. It's a big deal and this is what they're working on now. This
also definitely indicates that the Saudis are on board with a plan for the
quote day after. So it's a big development. There's obviously going to
be a lot of negotiation that has to occur, but this is now tying a Palestinian
state to something that Israel has wanted for a very, very long time. It is a
huge thing. Now the other question that I know is going to come in, you know, if
the US does get to engage in its long-term strategy and deprioritize the
Middle East, does that mean that you know the US isn't going to be engaging in
military adventurism and all of that stuff? I think sure in the Middle East
they'll stop, but it's to free up resources to go do it in Africa. If
you're looking for the downside, that's it. That's where the downside
lies. So this is definitely something to watch and this might be the sweetener to
alter some attitudes that have been reluctant to engage in a long-term peace
process.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
y'all have a good day.
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