| Input | Output |
|---|---|
| Link | Youtube |
| Published | 2024/05/25 |
| Theme | |
| Status | article incomplete |
{{Summary}}
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Bo again.
So today we are going to talk about Russia, Ukraine,
and Putin's promise of peace.
We will go through the signals that went out.
We'll talk about how it is being read by a whole lot of people.
And we will go over another option.
Ok, so what happened?
People very close to Putin have put out the idea that they are ready for a ceasefire.
As long as they get to keep everything that they've taken so far, they're ready for
a ceasefire.
Now the general read on this in the West is this is Putin trying to undermine Western
support for Ukraine and try to create the narrative that he's looking for peace, that
he's the good guy, and that he's not the aggressor, and trying to get that narrative
out in the media to undermine support.
Yeah, I don't think that's it.
I'm just going to be super blunt about this.
I don't believe that's what's going on.
So let's go through recent events as we know them.
A bunch of Russian brass got arrested.
There was a shift when it comes to the very top leadership and an economist was brought
in.
Somebody who is really good at forecasting.
That's like his thing.
A lot of Western nations have already committed to years of aid in advance.
They've already worked it into their budgets.
If I had to guess, this isn't just a signal saying, hey, I'm the peacemaker.
Don't be mad at me.
This is the economist telling him what pretty much every analyst has known.
This isn't sustainable.
If the West continues to support Ukraine, this isn't sustainable.
Russia could engage in a full-on mobilization and maybe pull it off, but if they do, they
completely fall out of the near-peer game.
And the longer this drags on, the further away they get from being a competitor when
it comes to US and China.
My guess is this is Putin's way of trying to get peace with honor.
Trying to keep the dirt that he took so far and just hoping that Ukraine goes for it.
I don't believe that this is just a psychological thing where he's trying to put out a narrative.
I believe that the first read from that economist that was brought in to run the military, we
can't keep this up.
This isn't something that we can maintain, which is true, and pretty much everybody knew
that.
Russia was gonna win they had to do it quickly. They didn't. It can drag on and
on. I believe Russia is using the term eternal war rather than forever war but
as discussed early on they don't have the numbers and they haven't got to the
hard part. They haven't got to the actual occupation yet. So I think that there is
a widespread misreading of what this signal is. I don't just think it's
something to undermine Western support. I think that this is a clear indication
that the Kremlin understands that if this goes on, it will go on and on and on and on.
That seems to be the more likely option in my opinion. As soon as the news came out,
a whole bunch of messages came in. What do I think? Should Ukraine, you know,
accept a ceasefire, should they pursue peace, should they give up land? The
simple answer here is I'm not Ukrainian. That's their decision and it
would be incredibly beneficial if NATO remembered that. It is Ukraine's
call on what to do, not NATO's. There shouldn't be pressure one way or the
on this. It is their call. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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