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Published | 2020/12/16 |
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Beau says:
Georgia's high-stakes Senate runoff election on January 5th determines power dynamics in Congress, with Democrats aiming for control and Republicans facing strategic implications.
Georgia voters
Details on specific candidates and their policies could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the election dynamics.
#Georgia #SenateRunoff #Election #Stakes #VoterTurnout #PowerDynamic
Well, howdy there, In-N-Out people.
It's Beau again.
So today I have Georgia on my mind,
because y'all keep asking about it.
Oddly enough, nobody from Georgia has asked about it,
and nobody actually cares about the candidates in this case.
They're concerned about the long-term impacts
from the outcome, because the stakes are incredibly high.
Okay, so what's happening?
It's a runoff election on January 5th.
Early voting has already started.
At stake are two Senate seats.
If the Democrats win them,
they get the majority in the Senate,
which means they will control the House,
the Senate, and the presidency.
Democrats lead in polling by a hair.
I mean, it's within the margin of error.
It is not a substantial lead.
Now, if Republicans win both,
McConnell keeps his position, Senate majority leader,
but he did so with Trump's help,
because Trump has pushed the two Republican candidates.
That kind of undermines his effort
to make people in Congress choose.
You're gonna be part of the party of McConnell
or the party of Trump.
That's going to upset his efforts there.
If Democrats win both, McConnell loses the majority,
and Trump becomes even more irrelevant,
because he has put his clout behind these candidates.
Now, there are weird considerations in this race.
First is that it's not at a normal time.
It's a runoff race.
It's off cycle.
Generally speaking, it is those who are most engaged
and think strategically that show up for these races,
that show up for these elections.
That's normally Republicans.
That being said, there are some things
going against Republicans on this one.
The candidates on the Republican side
have backed Trump's claims about the election,
the unsubstantiated, unfounded claims that he keeps making.
And they did so about Georgia's elections, their own elections.
That may depress turnout.
I mean, why go vote if it doesn't matter, you know?
McConnell's move of welcoming Biden,
going ahead and saying that he's president-elect,
may also depress turnout,
because there may be Trump loyalists who are spiteful,
go figure, and want to punish McConnell.
And if their candidates in Georgia lose,
well, he loses his position, too.
That may be at play.
On top of that, the president's threatened veto of the NDAA
could change the minds of military voters,
a demographic that he's not doing well with,
that Republicans tend to.
So there's a lot of unusual considerations in this race.
All right, so long-term, if the Democrats win, what happens?
They control it all,
and they will be free to undo a lot of the bad policies
and the damage that Trump has done.
Progressives don't get too excited,
because there's a whole lot of bad policies
and a whole lot of damage that has to be undone.
The odds that truly progressive policies
are going to be pushed through over the next four years,
it's kind of slim.
It's going to be very return-to-status quo.
Now, if the Republicans win, what happens?
They become obstructionists.
They try to keep Trump's bad policies in place
as much as they can to punish voters so they blame Biden.
That's really what they're going to try to do,
is to undo that and block appointments.
Those are the long-term strategic implications
of the race in Georgia, and at the end of the day,
who's going to win?
Whoever has highest turnout.
It is that close.
As far as polling is concerned, you know,
they keep playing up the fact that Democrats are leading,
but it's not a substantial lead at all.
And it's all going to revolve around who shows up.
Generally, when you are talking about this kind of election,
Republicans have higher turnout.
That will alter the polls.
But this is a weird case, because the candidates
have kind of damaged themselves, and they
have decreased their own turnout in the process.
So there's the situation.
As far as a prediction, I don't have one.
I don't have a clue.
I have no clue how this is going to turn out.
But especially for those overseas
who are wondering why everybody cares about this so much,
it boils down to the Democrats' ability
to seize control of the Senate, which
means Mitch McConnell won't have the power he currently has.
That's the reason the entire country cares about the senators
that Georgia elects.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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