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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2021/02/23 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau analyzes Biden's first foreign policy test with Iran, focusing on the challenge of achieving a politically acceptable deal while navigating regional power dynamics and avoiding the appearance of weakness.
Policy Analysts
The full transcript provides detailed insights into the complex dynamics of international diplomacy, offering a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in dealing with Iran and the broader Middle East region.
#Biden #Iran #ForeignPolicy #Diplomacy #MiddleEast #DealMaking
Well, howdy there internet people. It's Beau again. So today we are going to talk about
Biden's first real foreign policy test. You know, shortly after he took office,
he made some foreign policy moves and a lot of the media acted surprised. Most of it probably
didn't surprise y'all. If y'all watched the video on Biden's second state department,
something like that. It was before he took office. It might have been before he was
really elected, but we speculated about what his foreign policy was going to be like. We talked
about how arms control was going to be a big part of it. And even I made a joke about him trying to
make sure that certain countries didn't get missile systems. And in the comments, I clarified
Saudi Arabia and he pulled back from there. That was treated as though it was a surprise
by the media. It wasn't. If we on this channel knew, Saudi intelligence certainly knew.
It wasn't a real test. Biden's first real test is Iran. That's his first real test.
And it's all being framed around the deal. And yeah, that's a huge part of it, but it's way more
than that. It is way more than that because the actual goal isn't just the deal. It's to bring
Iran out, out of isolation, into the international community. That's the goal. Because by doing that,
we can stabilize the Middle East, in theory. So what are all of the moving parts to actually
achieving this? One is following the Shia-Sunni divide. That's a big part. This is good for the
United States and for Iran. Curtailing their non-state actors in neighboring countries.
This is good for us and them. Prisoner exchanges. Good for us and them. The deal itself. Good for
both sides. Their relationship with specific other countries in the region. Good for both sides.
The stability is good for both sides. The entire process is good for both sides. You also have
some pie-in-the-sky stuff. You know, the United States wants to leave a nearby country. We want
to get out. But if we just leave the national government in Kabul, well, they're going to go
Iran. It has been floated that the United States would encourage, allow, entice, whatever term you
want to use, and that's really what it's going to boil down to at the end, is terminology,
Iran into stepping in to help. That's good for both sides. Likelihood of that isn't high,
but it's something they're talking about. So here's the question. If all of it is good for
both sides, why isn't it happening? It seems like it should be really easy.
Because just like any other country, and we saw this clearly in the United States,
it's not a singularity. We talk about Iran as if it's one group of people. And sure,
it is the same way we're all Americans, but as the last election showed, there's a pretty heavy
divide in the United States. There is there, too. So they have very different political realities.
But it's pretty much the same everywhere. There are liberals and there are conservatives.
There are people who want to move forward and those who want to stay where they are.
And just like the United States, Iran has people that want to move backwards, too.
So the deal has to be politically tenable for everybody involved so they can take it back home
and be okay with it. And then we have to acknowledge Iran is a regional superpower.
They are a big deal. Why? What makes Iran a big deal? Because they've been a thorn in the side
of the United States for 40 years and they've never bent. Iran is one of the few countries
in the region that can tell an American president to kick rocks and then the American president goes
to the joint chiefs and the joint chiefs are like, yeah, we really don't want to do this.
This is going to make Iraq look like Panama. They have that ability. Their power in the region,
their currency, really relies, their political currency, heavily relies on the fact that they
have always stood up to the United States. They can't appear to be weak on a national level.
Now here in the U.S., Biden has to deal with something else. Trump did a really good job
of convincing everybody that this was a horrible deal, that the deal was in place,
the deal that was in place was just absolutely horrible. It wasn't. It wasn't great, but it was
working. But if he comes off as weak in these negotiations, it's really bad for him.
So both countries are in the position where they want this deal. Iran wants the deal. The United
States wants the deal. Everybody in the region really wants the deal, to be honest,
but neither side can look weak. So what's going to happen?
Biden does have a fantastic foreign policy team. Now I'm not talking about the appointments that
everybody pays attention to. I'm talking about the functionaries underneath, the people who act as
envoys and back channels. It's all star. It is fantastic. So there is a slim possibility
of them being able to actually work out a comprehensive deal up front. It's possible,
because it's not just a matter of working out the details to all of this.
It's working out the details in a way that both sides can take back and appears though they won.
So in the event that doesn't happen, which is what I think is the most likely scenario,
we are in for a long haul of small deals along the way, each one containing something
that can be taken back and shown as a win to the people back at home,
and for Iran, more importantly, showing that they're not caving to the United States.
That's the most likely scenario. So this process could take years. I know people want
a quick resolution to this. That's probably not going to happen. I mean, it could. There are
really good people working on it, but it isn't likely. So at the end of the day,
what we have to take away from this is that there are probably going to be phases in this deal
making process. In the big picture, in the long term deal that is trying to be made,
which is stability in the Middle East, which is peace in theory, along the way, there are probably
going to be many deals that we don't like, that don't really seem to be in line with the total
goal. That's really likely. And then there's going to be a bunch of side deals, because there always
are. There's an interest spread over probably 30 countries that all come back to this, to bringing
Iran out and getting them part of the international community again, and then theoretically using that
to stabilize the entire Middle East. He has chosen, President Biden has chosen, a mountain
of a goal for his first foreign policy test. I'm very interested to see how it plays out,
but I think we're in for a long ride on this one. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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