Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2021/04/12 |
Theme | |
Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
President Biden's delicate negotiation process with Iran requires tough decisions to bring them back into the international community, despite domestic and international pressures.
Diplomacy enthusiasts
In-depth analysis of the potential consequences of failing to bring Iran back into the international community.
#PresidentBiden #IranDeal #Diplomacy #InternationalRelations #ForeignPolicy
Well, howdy there, Internet people. It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about President Biden's make or break moment again.
Provide a little update on that.
Check in and see how it's going in Vienna.
Okay, so short version.
Didn't break.
But it also hasn't been made yet.
It is progressing, but it is moving pretty slowly.
It's apparently a very tedious process.
If you don't know, don't remember the video,
we are talking about the United States and Iran getting back into the deal.
My understanding is that the American delegation was in one building,
the Iranian in another, and the EU was shuttling back and forth
like they were passing notes in study hall.
But the fact that the whole process didn't just disintegrate immediately
shows that both countries want back in the deal.
There are some sticking points that have to be worked out.
Iran wants to do it all in one step.
The United States wants to do it one step at a time.
There are sanctions that are disputed.
And then there's the matter of what they call sequencing.
That's who goes first.
From the US perspective, there are sanctions that were applied to Iran by Trump
that were not technically as a result of the weapons program.
From Iran's perspective, all of these sanctions were applied in a campaign by Trump
to apply pressure over their weapons program.
So they want them all gone.
The United States, as of yet, hasn't committed to that.
And then there's the matter of who goes first.
Now, when we've talked about it in the past, we've pointed out that both sides have to look strong at home.
Neither side can appear weak to their own citizens.
So if President Biden removes all the sanctions at once, he's going to be criticized as being weak.
In fact, there was already an article, I want to say it was in the Post, that says that if he did that,
well, he's giving away all of our leverage.
You know, because reapplying sanctions is like super hard.
I would also point out that if pretty much everything is sanctioned, you are also out of leverage.
Removing sanctions gives you more leverage because you could reapply them at a later date if needed.
Now, in Iran, there's an election coming up.
So they can't look like they caved to the United States.
Aside from that, without getting too far into how the Iranian political system is set up,
there's one person that kind of has final say in all of this.
And they are not a fan of a gradual lifting of sanctions.
So that's the situation as it is.
If I'm Biden, if I'm president, I remove them all.
I go ahead and do it.
President Biden has the political capital right now to do it.
To be honest, nobody's going to care.
This is not a kitchen table issue.
Most people are not going to care over who goes first when it comes to this.
Sure, he's going to be blasted on Fox News.
It's not really going to hurt him.
And if I'm President Biden and I have these grand foreign policy plans for the Middle East,
and they all hinge on getting Iran out of isolation,
getting them back into the international community,
we've got to get started.
And this is the first step.
So we don't know what's going to happen yet.
The delegations, from what I understand, they went back to their capitals
and will be meeting again this week.
So it's an ongoing process.
It hasn't fallen apart, and that's a really good sign.
But it hasn't been completed yet either.
So there are some things that could still go wrong.
There is the possibility of reaching an impasse.
If that happens, this doesn't occur until later in the year,
until almost the end of the year.
Because there's the election and then the new government getting set up over there.
It's going to take time.
And that's a delay that, if I'm the Biden administration, I want to avoid that.
So I would go ahead and take the two-point dip in the polls for three weeks
until people forget about it and just move ahead.
At the end of the day, getting back in this deal,
getting Iran back into the international community,
getting them out of isolation, that needs to be the goal.
And it's possible.
It's on the table.
It's something that can happen.
And then with that, the rest of Biden's foreign policy becomes possible.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
I'll have a good day.
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