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Published | 2022/02/16 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Russia's troop reduction near Ukraine signals hope for de-escalation, but uncertainty looms over whether it's genuine or mere posturing in the ongoing conflict.
World citizens
In-depth analysis of potential geopolitical impacts and the role of international bodies in addressing the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
#Russia #Ukraine #TroopWithdrawal #Geopolitics #ConflictResolution
Well, howdy there, Internet people.
It's Beau again.
So good news, right?
Reporting suggests that Russia is
going to begin removing some, not all, some troops
from the Ukrainian border.
And this is good news.
I've had people ask, is this a total de-escalation?
Is this going to be the end of it?
I don't know about that.
I've been a longtime proponent of the idea
that Putin wants to take Ukraine without a shot
and that the purpose of these little buildups,
just like the one 10 months ago, one of the reasons
it's happening is to show Ukraine that NATO
isn't going to back it up.
And therefore, Ukraine might come over willingly
to the Russian side of things in the near-peer contest
that exists.
I think that's a possibility.
However, the claim of standing down,
it hasn't been confirmed by Western sources yet.
And even when it is confirmed, there's
no guarantee that it isn't a false withdrawal.
That it isn't a false withdrawal to lull people
into a false sense of security.
Now, realistically, that's a bad idea.
In today's climate, a major power saying, OK,
we're de-escalating and then attacking,
that's what we might call today a really bad look
and would probably prompt an even stronger response
from the international community.
I feel fairly confident that Russia knows that.
But it's not an impossibility that they still advance.
This is just a hopeful sign at this point.
Now, even if this does completely de-escalate
at this point, just like nine months ago, 10 months ago,
this is the front line.
This is the front line.
There will be another flare up of tensions along this border.
And it will continue until somehow it's resolved.
Either Ukraine gets admitted to NATO,
or Ukraine decides it's not worth it,
we're going to the Russian side, or it
becomes this bizarre political no man's land.
But these tensions will continue until there is some resolution.
So even if this is the end of this flare up,
it's not the end of the issue as a whole.
And you'll see Ukraine resurface in headlines,
just like back then.
It's hopeful news.
And I still think that Russia would prefer
to take Ukraine without a shot.
However, a preference doesn't mean that that's necessarily
how they're going to do it.
But we'll continue watching it and see what's going on.
If the withdrawal of troops is only a few thousand,
it's only a couple percent.
If it is a major portion of the force that has been deployed,
that's a much better sign.
We don't know.
And until there is verification of the fact
that, A, there was a withdrawal, and B, we
get the scope of the withdrawal, we're
not going to know if this is a real de-escalation
or this is just posturing.
Again, we need to be looking at the Cold War
more than the last 20 years or so
for historical context on this.
This is the front line.
This is Germany during the Cold War.
This is where tensions are going to continue rising and falling.
And it will continue until there's
a resolution of some sort.
So while I'm hopeful, and yes, this
goes along with my personal pet theory,
we don't know that for sure.
If you are also a supporter of the idea
that this was all posturing in an attempt
to bring Ukraine over, I wouldn't take a victory lap
just yet.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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