Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/02/21 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Western media noticed Putin's recorded meeting with advisors suggesting recognizing breakaway regions in Ukraine, potentially shaping Russia's foreign policy.
Foreign policy analysts
Detailed analysis of potential implications of Putin's decision on recognizing breakaway regions.
#Putin #Russia #ForeignPolicy #Ukraine #Conflict #Security
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about Putin's meeting
with his council.
So Western media, let's start with this,
Western media is making a pretty big deal out of the idea
that they believed that it was live,
but they could tell by one of the watches in the room
that it was recorded hours before.
I have yet to see anything from the Russians claiming that it was live.
It gave that impression, but I don't know that this is as big a deal as people are making
it out to be.
It was recorded ahead of time.
Okay.
Big deal.
What was the meeting?
General tone was that it was Putin meeting with his trusted advisors, all of whom do
whatever he says.
Just be clear about that.
In it, Putin gets to cast himself as the reasonable one, seeking counsel.
And all of his advisors basically tell him, hey, you know what, you should recognize these
breakaway regions of Ukraine as countries.
You should do that.
That's the thing.
And he says, OK, well, I'll make a decision.
It's basically the meeting.
I would point out that I'd be willing to bet the decision was made before the meeting,
and the video that is going to announce his decision has also probably already been recorded.
That didn't really strike me as if there was any deliberation going on.
tone suggests that Putin will recognize these contested areas as independent
countries. Okay, so if that happens, what are the options? Option one would be for
Putin to be like, you know what, this force, it's not an invasion force, it's
just here to stabilize and secure these new countries that are under the threat
of Western aggression and that's how he'll frame it. So he can either leave them where they're at
as kind of a warning or he can move them into these new countries that he has recognized.
Once they're moved in, he has the option of either actually attempting to just stabilize them
them, or waiting for the first provocation to invade Ukraine and doing it.
Those are kind of the options there.
It gives them a really good pretext.
We're trying to save this new country.
Makes them look like the good guy at home, right?
The alternative to that would be attempting to secure it in a defensive situation, which
not that's not Russian doctrine that's it that's not how they roll it's not
impossible but that doesn't go along with their normal way of doing things
now I do I still have one person who is has a pretty good track record of
predicting Putin that says Putin is looking for an off-ramp this whole thing
was designed to do one thing and it failed and so now he's in this position
but he doesn't want to be embarrassed but he's still looking for a way to
avoid a full confrontation. And this person does have a really good track
record going back years of predicting what Putin's gonna do. So I don't want to
dismiss it. At the same time there are a whole lot of pieces in play that
suggest it has gone further than just an attempt to sow discord between Ukraine and NATO.
If I was in an area that was near one of the contested regions, I wouldn't feel comfortable
with, well, you know, this guy says that Putin's probably looking for a way out.
There's also a part of me that thinks that Putin may believe this is his way out.
Recognizing the republics and not going further, recognizing these new countries and not committing
to a full invasion of Ukraine might actually be his way out.
If that is what he does, and if it's successful, I would expect that to become part of Russia's
foreign policy. I would expect from that point forward if it works for them to attempt to chip
off sections of countries near their borders. If they can't flip current states away from NATO,
if they can't pull them away, you got to create that buffer zone somehow in Putin's mind. You
You have to create those buffer countries, so you literally just create them.
You chip them off from existing nations, and then you have that buffer zone.
The thing about it is that Putin may be attempting to win the next perceived war by preparing
for the last.
All major powers today have really good ability to project their force.
Buffer zones don't really matter as much anymore, and they haven't in a really long time, but
they were established talking points.
We talk about how in foreign policy, once something gets established, the talking points,
the politicians get involved, and it tends to stay around a lot longer than it needs
to.
reality is that what's the difference between having missiles right up against
your border and having them on a sub? Two minutes. It doesn't realistically in the
actual outcome, if things were to go bad, it doesn't make a difference. This is a
tactic from a period that when you had to physically show up somewhere by
marching there or tanks, it's a holdover from that. Today it doesn't really
matter that much, but that doesn't appear to be the way Russian state security
sees it. So the options. He recognizes the republics, recognizes these new
countries. That to me, based on that meeting, that's a that's gonna happen. It
seems unlikely that Putin staged this whole thing just to come out and say, oh
I'm not gonna recognize them, unless he plans on completely revamping his
government, and getting rid of a whole lot of people who just gave him advice because
he would be directly going against the consensus in the room.
So he recognizes the republics and then he either moves in an attempt to protect them
or he uses any provocation whatsoever or manufactures one to go ahead and invade Ukraine.
Those two are options.
And then the third one is he sits tight and hopes that Ukraine is just fine and doesn't
attempt to secure these breakaway regions that are historically part of their country.
he's going to do, I don't think anybody has a clue yet except for him. In fact,
I don't think people in that room at that meeting really know what he's
about to do. I think he might be the only one who has a clear picture on his plan.
So, anyway, it's just a thought, y'all have a good day.
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