Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/02/22 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau provides insight into escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with Putin's flexible strategies and global responses shaping a potentially volatile situation.
Global observers
In-depth analysis and context on the evolving situation between Russia, Ukraine, and global responses.
#Russia #Ukraine #Putin #Geopolitics #Conflict #GlobalResponse
Well, howdy there, internet people, Lidsbo again.
So today, we are going to provide a little situation
report, or just kind of go over what's happened,
where the major players are now, and kind of guess
their intent a little bit, as much as we can,
with the information that's available.
If you don't know, if you somehow missed it,
Putin did decide to take the route of saying, oh, we're peacekeepers, quote.
They're going in to stabilize the regions that are currently held by their proxies,
by forces in Ukraine sympathetic or allied to Russia.
So that's the stated objective at this point.
There are orders that we've seen that have been released.
At the same time, Putin in a speech used some pretty wild rhetoric.
He referred to Ukraine as ancient Russian land.
Historically speaking, that's a bad sign.
That tends to mean that that leader, especially when something like that is said on the precipice
of war, intends to retake that ancient land.
Now British sources say that Russian troops are already in those contested areas held
by the proxies.
I haven't been able to confirm that anywhere else.
But they are either already there or on the way at time of filming.
At time of filming, no heavy fighting has broken out yet.
Not really.
Not like what we can expect to see if things continue on the route they're on.
The Ukrainian president has taken the stance that just the actions so far constitute a
violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty.
He sounds like he's ready to go to war.
It made it pretty clear that there would be no redrawing of maps, that he does not...
It doesn't appear that allowing the contested areas to become new republics, it doesn't
seem like that's on the table for him.
NATO really hasn't done much to be honest.
The expectation is that some pretty stiff sanctions will be coming out today.
How stiff we don't know.
Aside from that, I would expect them to up the amount of material aid that they are providing
Ukraine.
Now, the U.S. Embassy is moving to Poland.
That is a very clear indication that United States intelligence believes that there's
a conflict coming and that it is going to be widespread.
The U.S. Embassy is to the west.
contested areas, they're a pretty good distance away, and the US embassy had
already been moved a little bit further west, and now they're pulling it out of
the country altogether, according to reporting. That definitely indicates that
the US believes this is going to spiral. China finally made a statement, and it
It was exactly what you would expect considering Chinese foreign policy, was basically, hey,
show restraint, do this diplomatically.
Not our problem.
I mean, it is kind of the tone of it.
They didn't really take a side in it publicly.
So that tracks with the rest of Chinese foreign policy, especially in relation to Europe.
So what can Putin do now?
He has a few options.
One would be to just take the areas that are already
controlled by the proxies.
Russian military moves in, helps stabilize those areas that
are truly under the proxy control.
If they decide to move beyond that,
the next stopping point would be to just take those regions.
The proxies claim the territory that
exist outside what they actually control.
The Russian military may assist them in capturing that
and then stop.
That would be an option as well.
The next three are much larger escalations.
One would be to push as far as they can and just go for it
and see what happens.
The next would be to try to take everything
east of the Dnieper River, and then the last would be full blown, they're going to attempt
to take the whole country.
U.S. intelligence definitely seems to think that's the goal.
The Ukrainian president, I don't think he believes that.
Now, as far as what Putin might do, I don't think he's decided.
I think at this point he's kind of playing this pretty loosely and he's going to be very
flexible because I'm still of the opinion that he's going to try to push as far as he
can.
I think the goal here, as I've said, was to take as much as he can without a shot.
There is the possibility that he is going to misread, and he may already have.
But I don't believe that he's decided on a firm course of action yet.
His speech was kind of all over the place, and it left a lot of options open that would
allow him to claim victory back home.
I don't think that he's committed to anything yet. He's gonna see what the
response is. Aside from that I had specific questions come in about the
list and about the use of nukes. There will be videos coming out about those
topics later on. They're already recorded at the time of filming. Major
hostilities haven't really broken out yet. So if they do, those videos may be
pushed back and they may seem kind of disjointed from everything else, but there
were questions that were asked and I wanted to get them answered. We'll have
to see how today plays out. So this is where we stand at the moment. It's
It's probably, I don't know, 6 a.m. Eastern.
So things may change before this video goes live because this is dynamic and it is developing
pretty quickly in some unique ways.
So anyway, it's just a thought, y'all have a good day.
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