Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/02/28 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are uncertain amid economic turmoil in Russia, strong Ukrainian resistance, and a window of hope for preventing further escalation.
World leaders, negotiators
Insights on potential diplomatic strategies and the importance of seizing the current window of peace talks.
#Russia #Ukraine #PeaceTalks #Geopolitics #EconomicCrisis
Well, howdy there, Internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we're going to talk about peace,
just like Russia and Ukraine are.
If you are unaware, peace talks have
begun between Russia and Ukraine.
We have no idea how they're going, how they will proceed.
We don't know Russia's starting position.
If this is your first time following something like this,
generally speaking, the first round of peace talks
do not produce peace, at least not a lasting one.
So we're going to have to wait and see on that.
So today, we're going to kind of do a recap on the situation
in Ukraine on the ground and the situation in Russia
and why that may lead Russia to be a little bit more
flexible in its position.
Inside Ukraine, things haven't shifted much.
The Russian advance has stalled.
The Ukrainian resistance is holding pretty well.
As far as on the battlefield, not a whole lot has changed.
Dynamics have shifted outside of Ukraine, though.
There is a possibility of Belarus
joining Russia in the fight.
A lot of European countries are offering advanced military aid,
not just bits and pieces, but some heavy hardware,
like jets.
This is probably not going to sit well with Putin.
But he has bigger problems.
The economic situation in Russia is deteriorating swiftly.
The ruble has lost 30% of its value.
At time of filming, it is 109 rubles to a dollar.
A ruble is worth less than a penny.
Interest rates in the country have been raised.
Think about what it's like when the US raises interest rates
and how much they typically raise them by.
Russia just raised theirs from 9.5% to 20%.
You have oligarchs, at least a couple,
publicly calling for peace because they are losing money
and they're losing it quickly.
These are people who Putin relies on for power.
You know, there is an image that he controls them.
It's a little bit more balanced than that.
They have a lot of influence.
The stock market is closed.
A run on the banks has already begun.
The estimation is that their gross domestic product will be down 5% already.
BP is in the process of dumping $14 billion of Rosneft,
a large Russian oil company.
That's going to hurt.
The economic situation in Russia, it went south way faster than people predicted.
Even the people who thought that bouncing them out of the swift banking network
was going to be incredibly effective,
I don't think anybody predicted it being this effective in like 48 hours.
The timing seems coincidental that the economic situation is going the way it is
and Russia is willing to talk.
I'm hoping that that's a sign that they are going to be doing this in good faith,
but we don't know.
Putin had a plan for Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia to be reunited.
This is probably a legacy thing for him.
I don't know how willing he's going to be to back away from it.
He has all of the economic reasons in the world to untangle himself from this mess
and not a lot of military reasons to stay.
At this point, he has to understand that the resistance is formed.
It has steeled itself.
If he stays, if Russia stays, they will continue to fight.
It doesn't matter if Russia pushes through and takes the capital.
It doesn't matter what happens to Zelensky.
The resistance is formed.
They will be dealing with this for years if they stay.
He has to know that.
All of the bluster, all of the posturing, at this point, it doesn't matter.
It would be wise for NATO or Zelensky to give him a way out,
to give him a soft landing, something that can speed this process along.
This is a very proud man, and his lifelong dream has gone up in smoke over the last few days.
If negotiators push too hard, he may recommit and just say, fine,
we're going to take the losses for the next however long it takes.
This is a window, I'm hoping, that all the parties involved understand that this is the chance
to stop this before it gets really bad.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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