Input | Output |
---|---|
Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/03/17 |
Theme | |
Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau talks about ongoing negotiations for peace, Ukraine's request for defense guarantee, and NATO's hesitations due to liability concerns.
Foreign policy analysts
Insights on the potential impacts of the ongoing negotiations and the importance of finding a feasible solution for all parties involved.
#PeaceNegotiations #Ukraine #Russia #NATO #ForeignPolicy
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about the negotiations.
Both countries have kind of expressed that things are
moving along in the negotiation process, and the
peace process is moving, and that maybe it will actually
get somewhere, and the fighting will stop,
which would be cool.
The current thing that seems to be on the table is the
idea that Ukraine remain neutral, doesn't join NATO, and Russia leaves.
Russia withdraws sooner rather than later.
The sticking point here is that while Ukraine seems to be open to this, they want a guarantee
from a Western nuclear power saying that if Russia invades again, that country will come
to their defense, and presumably would bring all of NATO with it.
People have asked, isn't this just the Budapest memos that everybody violated?
No, it's not.
The Budapest memo back in 1994, it didn't have guarantees.
It had assurances, and the difference in those two words means a whole lot.
One's legally binding, one isn't.
The only country that has violated the Budapest memo so far is Russia.
All the powers had to do to abide by that was not invade Ukraine and not threaten it
with nukes.
That's what mattered.
The assurances provided legal cover if, say, the U.S. wanted to help Ukraine, but it didn't
require them to.
A guarantee would require whatever Western power agreed to that to come in.
The thing is, Ukraine wanted this back in 94 and they didn't get it for the same reason
that exists today.
If that happens, if Russia was to invade and this agreement was in place, that places nuclear
powers in direct conflict.
And that's something that we've kind of strived to avoid.
So while the negotiations seem to be moving along, Russia certainly seems to be coming
to terms with the situation on the ground.
I'm not incredibly optimistic about this particular arrangement getting anywhere because from
NATO's standpoint, signing on and guaranteeing this, it's just a liability.
There's no upside to it for NATO.
And if you're thinking, well, but it would stop the fighting, you're thinking about foreign
policy in terms of right and wrong.
And it's not about that.
It's about power.
This doesn't increase NATO's power, and it provides them with a liability.
I don't know that that's something that any of the nuclear powers in the West would be
willing to agree to.
And if any of them does, it's basically all of NATO agreeing to it.
Because once the conflict starts, well, then everybody's in.
I think that the other sticking point are the new countries, so to speak, that Russia
recognized carved out of Ukrainian territory.
That is another point that they're still kind of arguing over, the question of whether or
not that reverts back to Ukraine or they actually become recognized nations.
I would hope that somebody sees the happy middle ground there, where the carved out
nations stay in the Russian sphere, and Ukraine is free to join NATO.
That seems like a much more likely scenario that can actually get somewhere, because Russia
then would still have its buffer, but Ukraine actually gets real protection as well.
But again, that is talking about taking people who may not necessarily want to join the Russian
sphere of influence and just telling them that they're going to because now they're
in a new country.
There's hope, but I don't know that there's going to be a peace tomorrow, or even any
time soon.
These talks could break down at any moment, and while Russia is beginning to acknowledge
that things aren't going well for them, they are still led by a person who seems to be
less understanding of reality than he used to be.
Anyway, it's just a thought, y'all have a good day.
{{Shirt}}
{{EasterEgg}}