Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/04/05 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Russian forces in Ukraine are redeploying, Ukrainian tactics may shift, and a conventional fight looms as the conflict evolves.
International observers
Insight into the potential outcomes of the peace talks and the importance of international diplomacy efforts for resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
#Ukraine #RussianForces #MilitaryConflict #PeaceTalks #LogisticalIssues
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about the situation
on the ground in Ukraine again.
Tell you where we're at, what's likely to happen
over the next few days, because we
may see another reversal of fortunes coming.
So Russian forces around the capital,
they're basically non-existent now.
They're still little pockets, but that's done.
They haven't withdrawn or been pushed out.
There is the idea that those forces are going
to be redeployed in the east.
Those forces are spent.
They're done.
They may be used as replacements,
but for most purposes, those pieces are off the board.
They may be used to fill in another units to replace
people they've lost.
But overall, these forces from around the capital
were unlikely to see most of them again.
Now, along the most contested areas, down in the south
and in the east, no real changes.
Mariupol, house to house, street to street,
very costly for the Russians right now.
In the east, it's not really moving.
Maybe they gain a little here, lose a little here,
But the lines are pretty static.
The Russian command wants to go back on the offensive, and that's what they're trying
in those areas, but they're not succeeding.
The areas that we should probably keep our eyes on are the areas around Kharkiv and Izium.
The Russian forces there have been preparing.
They've been pulling stuff together, getting supplies for their vehicles, getting food,
gathering food.
As an aside, that hasn't gone well for them in some places.
I don't know that there's a manual saying don't take food prepared by the people you're
occupying when they're hostile to you, but somebody might want to write that manual and
translate it into Russian. Some of the forces there found out that gathering
food from the opposition is not easy as pie and may lead to severe digestive
issues. But the forces there are pulling supplies together to advance and since
Since they're preparing, they may actually have some success in the beginning.
At the same time, the fact that they're gathering stuff from the countryside shows that the
actual issues the Russian army has been facing haven't been fixed.
The logistics are still shot.
If that problem was fixed, they wouldn't be gathering stuff from the countryside.
would be showing up to them.
Now the most likely move coming out of that area is to drive down and try to encircle
Ukrainian forces down in the more contested areas in the east.
That's probably the move.
From the Ukrainian side, they may make their first real mistake here.
The reason they've been so successful is because they've been pretty unconventional
in their tactics.
It's easy to do that when you're on the defending side.
But psychologically now, the initiative has switched to Ukraine.
They're the ones in control.
The mobility that exists when you're fighting in an unconventional way is something they
they may be reluctant to adopt again, because now they want to fight that conventional fight.
That may be their first mistake.
That may be their first real mistake.
I doubt it will be long lived, though.
I imagine they'll correct that pretty quickly.
If Ukraine decides to go static and kind of rejects the mobility that's been helping them
so much. The Russian forces from Kharkiv and Izyum, they're probably gonna have
some success in the beginning. However, because they never fix their logistical
issues, the further they drive, the further they get away from where they
start, the more those issues are gonna show themselves and they're gonna run
into the same problems again because it wasn't fixed.
This looks as though the Russian command may be trying that slow and deliberate retake
of the country or maybe up to the Dnieper or something like that.
It looks like they're going to try to take more territory.
I don't know how well that's going to go.
But judging by the preparations and the psychological shift, it's likely that they have some success
in the beginning.
Now we have to wonder whether or not Ukraine is going to be able to pull off a counteroffensive
at this point, because up until now they've been on the defensive side most of the time.
We haven't seen them fight conventionally yet, not in any large scale.
We've seen them defend deep, and it worked really well for them.
But now they have the initiative, they may try to launch a counteroffensive.
The fact that they even have the equipment to launch a counteroffensive is amazing.
But now we have to see whether or not they can pull it off.
If they can, and they can break the troops that are coming from Kharkiv and Izyum, we
may be nearing the end of this, but if they slip on this, it might prolong the conflict.
At the same time, the behavior of Russian forces is going to make Ukrainians fight harder.
They're not going to want to surrender.
They're not going to want to give up, not after they found out what's happened.
It's one of those things that you see even in ancient texts.
Always leave your opposition a way out because if you don't, they'll fight to the last person.
leave them an avenue of retreat.
If they get encircled and they don't have that, they're probably not surrendering,
and that's going to demoralize Russian forces even more.
At this point, things are turning back into a conventional fight, which is unique.
Normally once stuff devolves to this point, it doesn't go back the other way.
But we'll have to see what happens.
The areas to watch, again, Kharkiv and Izyum.
That's where we're likely to see stuff start from.
The rest of it is probably going to be pretty static.
Over time, at some point, the defenders in Mariupol, they're going to lose.
At some point, without relief, they can't hold out forever.
So that could come at any point in time.
It could be tomorrow, it could be three weeks from now, but without a counteroffensive to
assist them and draw some of the pressure off them, eventually they're going to have
to give up because you can only hold out for so long.
So that's where we're at.
At the same time all of this is going on, it looks like the peace talks are going to
continue moving forward. So hopefully there'll be some developments there and all of this madness
can end. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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