Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/04/19 |
Theme | |
Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau explains winning and losing in war through examples, stating that Ukraine could still lose, but Russia cannot win the war despite potential for winning the fighting.
Global citizens, policymakers
Insights on the broader implications of the conflict and potential paths towards resolution.
#Ukraine #Russia #Geopolitics #War #Conflict #Military
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about winning and losing.
What is winning?
What is losing when you are talking
about the situation in Ukraine?
Because I got a message.
Can Ukraine lose?
Is it impossible for Russia to win?
That sounds like the same question phrased
two different ways, but it's not. It's not. What is war? A continuation of
politics by other means. When you're talking about winning a war, most
people can find that to the battlefield, right? That's not where it ends. The
purpose of a war is political. It's to achieve a goal. In most cases, countries
who are initiating a conflict want to emerge stronger than when they entered.
That's winning a war. It is completely possible to win the fighting and achieve
the victory conditions and lose the war. It is also possible to lose the fighting
and win the war when you're talking about on the geopolitical scene. As an
example, the Iraq war. Do you feel like the US won that? Most are probably going
to say no. Victory conditions were achieved. Iraq is now a strategic partner,
but because of the onset of that war, because of the cooked intelligence,
because of the length of time, it's not viewed as a win. Because the United
States did not really emerge stronger after it, right? The War of 1812. This is
a war that gets framed as America's second revolution. It's the war that, you
know, cemented America as a power. The U.S. lost that. The U.S. lost the
fighting. The most memorable victory from that war occurred after the war was
over, the Battle of New Orleans. You know, Washington, the White House was burned
by the British. The U.S. didn't win the fighting there, but it won the war
because it emerged stronger than when it started.
So can Ukraine lose?
Yes, that's still a possibility.
The Russian military could pull it together and actually achieve its victory conditions.
There's a possibility that it takes the country.
I find that incredibly unlikely and even more unlikely that they would be able to hold it.
I don't honestly think they can achieve the victory conditions they have set now, but it's
possible. So, Ukraine can still lose, but does that mean that Russia wins? No. Russia cannot win this
war now, no matter what happens. Even if they were capable of taking and holding the country they lost
the war. They lost the war in the first four days. There's no way for them to emerge more
powerful or in a better position than when it started. The perceived capability of their
military dropped like a rock.
Dropped like a rock.
That is a foundational element of how powerful a country is.
If your military is perceived to be strong enough, you don't actually have to use it.
It'd be great if somebody told US officials that.
There's no way for Russia to get that back.
Russia lost the war three or four days into it.
They could still win the fighting though.
The economic damage, the military damage, the perception, all of this makes a Russian
win of the war in the larger geopolitical scheme impossible at this point.
But yeah, there is still a chance they could win the fighting.
I find it incredibly unlikely that they take the country.
I don't find it likely at all that they even achieve the victory conditions they have set
out now, which is just pretty limited.
I don't think they'll be able to take and hold that.
But that's still in play.
That can change.
But there isn't anything left that can make up for the early losses when it comes to the
geopolitical scene.
The war is lost to Russia, but they still could win the fighting.
So that's one of the most just infuriating parts about this, to be honest, is that from
From the Russian standpoint, the war is lost.
Everything that's happening now is just determining how much it costs to lose, and it's just waste.
That to me is just the most infuriating part about all of this.
But the real question here is can Russia emerge from this even in a situation where it has
just slightly less power, just slightly loses the war.
This is also something that gets determined by them.
The longer they pursue it, the more they lose it by.
The days of there being something that they could redeem and being able to walk away with
this or walk away from this in a more powerful position, they're long, long gone.
The days of being able to break even are long, long gone.
It's a loss.
they just have to realize that they lost.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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