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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/05/16 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Ukraine's counteroffensive reaches the Russian border, symbolically significant but unlikely to advance further, sticking to their successful strategy.
Foreign policy analysts
The full transcript provides additional context on Russia's threats towards Finland and the intentional pace of Ukraine's counteroffensive progress.
#Ukraine #Russia #Counteroffensive #ForeignPolicy #Conflict #Diplomacy
Well, howdy there, Internet people. It's Beau again. So today we're going to talk about Ukraine invading Russia.
Yeah, you heard that right. Ukraine invading Russia. Because they now could if they chose.
And it has prompted a lot of curiosity about this possibility.
If you don't know, in the northern portion of the Eastern Front in the area north of Izium,
the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been pretty successful. It has picked up steam and there are
areas where Ukrainian troops have reached the Russian border. In the media this is kind of
being framed as Ukraine has pushed Russian troops back into Russia. That is not what happened.
The Russian forces moved south. So they're still in Russian-occupied Ukraine. But there was an area
that was held by Russia that is no longer held by Russia and it extends to the Russian border.
This is a big symbolic victory. Strategically it's not really a huge deal. It's good for morale
on the Ukrainian side, but this isn't a massive win as far as the long-term course of the war.
But that hasn't stopped a lot of curiosity. Because in theory, if Ukraine wanted to,
they could advance into Russian territory. I don't expect that. What Ukraine is doing now
is working. I don't expect them to deviate. Now there might be some light harassment or some
things that have good psychological value or perhaps entering Russian territory to come back
in to Ukrainian territory. Those are possibilities. But the idea of Ukraine moving into Russia and
taking Russian territory and attempting to hold it, I seriously doubt it. Mainly because they'll
run into all of the problems that Russia's been running into. Moving into an area and taking it
is very different than holding it. And they're not going to want to put themselves in that position.
My guess is that this counteroffensive will now start to kind of turn south and apply pressure
on Russian forces that are in Ukraine. I do not see them advancing and trying to take Russian
villages. That doesn't seem likely. They could in theory, but I don't see that as a move the
Ukrainian leadership will want to make. Right now they have the moral high ground, they have the
international support, their counteroffensive is going well. I don't see them deviating from what
is working. Another development over there is Russia threatening Finland, basically saying that
if you join NATO, we'll have to put troops on your border and attack NATO bases or whatever.
This is the same talking points that Russia has used for a long time. I don't think a lot of
people are putting any stock in it. I would also point out that they're in the middle of losing
one war. It would be a really bad idea to start another. So I don't expect a whole lot of
developments there. In Ukraine, you can expect more of the same. It's going to be slow, but there
will be steady progress from the Ukrainian side, but it's going to be slow. That seems to be an
intentional pace. There have been more than one occasion where the Ukrainian side has been
more than one occasion where Ukraine could have moved forward at a pretty quick speed,
and they elected not to with good reason. So it appears that they have a plan and they're going
to stick to it. So even though in this small area they have reached the Russian border,
I don't expect any deviation from what we're already seeing.
Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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