Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/05/30 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau provides an update on the situation in Ukraine, discussing Russia's gains, Ukraine's strategy, and the importance of perseverance in the conflict.
Global citizens, policymakers.
Analysis of potential humanitarian impacts on civilians in Ukraine.
#Ukraine #Russia #Conflict #Military #Strategy #WesternSupport
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we're going to talk about Ukraine.
We're going to provide an update on what's going on there.
So Russian forces have begun making gains.
They're modest, but they're making them.
The question that is coming in is, are these real gains,
or is this Ukraine adopting the strategy I suggested
a couple of weeks ago about stretching Russian lines?
I don't know.
I don't know.
I would think that if it was Ukraine intentionally trying
to stretch lines, Russia would be moving a lot faster.
So I'm not sure about that.
It might be Russia has finally found a pace
that its logistics can keep up with.
So they're just moving very, very slowly.
Now, that is tempered by the fact
that Russia is so short on manpower
that they have removed the age limit for the military.
You can be 50 years old and go into the military now.
There was a law prohibiting those over the age of 40,
and that has been removed.
At the same time, there are rumors
that Russia is feeling very confident
and is once again turning its eyes towards the capital
and believes that it can take it by fall.
Troops will be home by Christmas and all that stuff.
They're basing this, according to the rumor mill,
they're basing this on the idea that Western support
for Ukraine will dry up.
I don't think Russia understands the way
the American defense industry works.
If it is even remotely politically tenable,
the defense industry in the United States
will continue to push Congress to supply weapons
because they're going to make a bunch of money on it.
So I am skeptical that the US would stop supplying them.
So the short version of this is Russia
appears to have regained the initiative.
And from where I'm sitting, it looks natural.
It looks like they actually are making real gains.
There is the possibility that Ukraine
has decided to defend deep and is
trying to stretch those lines.
But from what I see, that's not moving fast enough.
You would want them to take a bunch of territory at once
so they're stretched, so then you can cut those lines
and duplicate everything that's happened before in the conflict.
And then there is a lot of mixed news
from inside Russia on their capabilities and their intent.
So that's what's going on.
The one thing that we know is that Russia
is settled in for the long haul here.
They're willing to commit to this for an extended period.
And it really boils down to, at this point,
it's whether or not you can do it.
It's whether or not Ukraine can keep fighting.
They don't have to win.
They just have to keep fighting.
And eventually, it breaks Russian resolve.
So that's a brief overview of what's
happened since the last time we talked about this.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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