Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/09/07 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau warns about the dire consequences of sensitive information on foreign defense capabilities getting into the wrong hands, stressing that there are no good scenarios, just varying degrees of very bad.
National Security Officials
The full transcript provides a detailed analysis of the potential fallout from sensitive information on foreign defense capabilities being exposed, urging caution and vigilance in handling such documents.
#NationalSecurity #SensitiveInformation #NuclearCapabilities #ForeignPolicy #RiskManagement
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about some documents that
are said to have been recovered during the search.
And we're going to talk about the various scenarios that
arise from that information getting out.
If you missed it, reporting is now suggesting that some of the documents that were recovered
down there at Trump's place detailed a foreign country's defense capabilities to include
their nuclear capabilities.
So short version to start off with, there's no good scenario here.
It's all bad and it's all very bad.
It's just varying degrees of very bad.
Okay, so given the fact that it says their nuclear capabilities, this estimate was prepared,
this document was prepared about a nuclear power.
So it's a limited number of countries that this could be about.
But we don't have to go through all of them because they break down into three categories.
The first would be an allied nation.
United States prepares estimates about its allies and that information is
generally shared with the US intentionally because nuclear posture
among allies is coordinated. So if this information gets out or just the fact
that it was there, that might make allied nations less likely to share
everything. They may feel that they have to keep things back because the US can't
be trusted to keep secrets, which undermines US national security and
undermines US nuclear posture. That's bad. Another scenario that arises from this
set would be if that information fell into an opposition country's hands, they
would get insight into the allied nation's nuclear posture, but because it's all coordinated,
that means that they also get insight into US nuclear posture and capabilities.
That's pretty bad.
The next category would be, it's an estimate about an opposition nation.
It details their capabilities, maybe their doctrine, stuff like that.
If that information was to fall into the hands of the country that it's about, that's really
bad because when we talk about intelligence, what's it about?
Intent, right?
If they get to see an assessment, an estimate prepared by the U.S. intelligence community
about them, they know what the US knows.
More importantly, they know what the US doesn't know.
They know what the US is expecting.
They can alter intent.
They can change things.
It would give an opposition nation a huge advantage.
OK, the last set, the last category,
is countries that are currently attempting
develop nuclear weapons. This is the least bad option for the US, but it's also a really
bad option because it very well might start a war. Let's say country X is attempting
to develop nuclear weapons. Country Y is an opposition nation of theirs. If country Y
was to get their hands on an estimate that said country X is six months out from achieving
nuclear weapons, well they might start a war in order to disrupt that.
They might try to degrade the research capabilities of their opposition.
So there are no good options.
This is all bad.
There's no way to downplay this.
That's just bad.
There's a reason this information is kept secret and locked off and not shared.
For those who are comparing this to just a record storage issue or perhaps an overdue
library book, I would point out that generally speaking, if you lose a library book, a war
doesn't start.
And that's a real possibility here.
Whether or not this information got out is what has to be determined.
If this information was seen by a bunch of people, if it was repeated, even if just the
contents of the reports were described over a stake and overheard, and that information
made it into a foreign intelligence services report, that's really bad.
This shouldn't be downplayed.
Anyway, it's just a thought, y'all have a good day.
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