Input | Output |
---|---|
Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/09/12 |
Theme | |
Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Ukrainian forces achieve a successful counteroffensive in Ukraine, but managing expectations is key as the conflict may continue protractedly.
International community, activists
The full transcript provides detailed insights into the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Ukraine and the challenges faced by Russian forces, urging caution in predicting the war's end.
#UkrainianCounteroffensive #PutinLost #RussianForces #MilitaryConflict #ManagingExpectations #WesternSupport
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about what
has happened in Ukraine over the last few days.
Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive.
And by any metric, it has been wildly successful.
So successful, I would be willing to say
that when the planners were in the room giving their best
case, worst case projections, what they have taken thus far
exceeds their best case projections.
It has been wildly successful.
People are asking how it happened.
Good planning and execution on the Ukrainian side.
A lot of command and communication failures
on the Russian side.
And then logistical issues dealing with not having,
or at least it doesn't appear, that they had planned locations
to regroup if things went wrong.
Because as they hastily withdrew,
they blew past areas that were relatively easy to defend
and didn't even make the attempt.
So my guess is that either through arrogance or ignorance,
they didn't have those positions prepared.
And the troops didn't know that they could
turn and make a stand there.
All of that combined with a little bit of luck.
The disorganization and disarray that
has been seen in Russian troops on the battlefield
has been echoed in Moscow.
On state TV, there are propagandists.
And in this case, I'm not talking about real news anchors.
I'm talking about literally state-funded propagandists.
Literally state-funded propagandists, OK?
They were correcting each other on air.
They were suggesting to, don't say that.
Wait for the Ministry of Defense.
What that tells me is that the brass, Russian command,
does not know what's going on either.
Because they weren't even capable of preparing talking
points for their propaganda arm.
So the communications failures are systemic.
They're throughout the military.
And that does not bode well for the future for the Russian side.
So that's what's going on.
This is a huge operational win for the Ukrainian side, massive.
It will alter the course of the war.
There's no doubt about that.
OK, so this is what most people watching this channel,
this is what you see as the good news.
Now let's get to a little bit of recap of something
we've talked about.
The war's over, politically.
International poker game view of the war, it's over.
Putin lost.
But that doesn't mean anything as far
as the military aspect of it.
The fighting can go on and on.
We've talked about this over and over again.
And it's really important to understand right now.
Because with the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive,
you have a lot of people now making predictions.
Stuff like the troops will be home by Christmas,
that kind of stuff.
Don't do that.
This is decisive, no doubt.
And sure, this may be the moment that Putin
realizes that the war is lost.
But there's no guarantee of that.
It's protracted.
It's a slugfest.
What was regained by the Ukrainian side
may be lost in the future.
Lines move back and forth.
It's really important to manage expectations in this conflict.
Ukraine won the war, politically.
The second other countries were like, hey, I want to join NATO.
Russia lost.
Putin lost.
There's no way to come back from that.
Militarily, they still may decide
that they want to try to hold on to some dirt.
Ukraine has the ability to defeat Russia militarily
as well.
They have that.
But one thing they need is Western support
for that to occur.
They need supplies.
They need equipment.
They need some training.
That's what they need.
If you have a bunch of people say,
this is going to be over by Christmas.
The war's almost over.
And you set that tone, when Christmas comes
and the fighting is still occurring on New Year's,
what happens?
People begin to feel like they're not making progress,
even though they are.
Don't oversell this.
Huge win at the operational level.
This doesn't mean the war's over.
It doesn't mean that Putin's going to cave any day.
Putin should have caved long ago.
The soldiers they're fighting are in the same situation
soldiers have found themselves in since the beginning of time.
Those on the ground, objective analysts,
they know what the outcome's going to be.
They know the political war is over.
But those people, they end up having to fight and continue
to do their jobs until a bunch of old rich people
who are in buildings that are printed on currency
come to the realization.
And sometimes this takes years.
Don't oversell this.
It's a huge win at the operational level.
It doesn't mean the war's over.
It certainly doesn't mean the troops
will be home by Christmas.
In point of fact, I do not know a single time
in which that prediction was made and it actually occurred.
That's not a prediction you're supposed to make.
That's an ironic statement.
That's normally said with sarcasm.
So is it possible that this is the moment?
Sure.
But we don't have anything to say that yet.
And managing expectations right now is incredibly important.
I think it is far more likely that internal discussions
in Russia lead to the war ending before this does.
The fighting is going to go on.
It's not over.
So just bear that in mind when you're talking about it.
If you are somebody who is very much in support
of Ukrainian objectives, you have reason to celebrate.
This was a huge win.
But it's winning a battle, not winning the war.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
{{Shirt}}
{{EasterEgg}}