Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/10/07 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau details the potential US response to Putin deploying a tactical nuke in Ukraine and why it might not be a likely scenario, considering NATO's capabilities and international dynamics.
Global citizens, policymakers
Analysis of the historical context and Cold War rhetoric influencing current perceptions and responses to nuclear threats.
#Putin #TacticalNuke #USResponse #NATO #InternationalRelations
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about what a US or NATO
response would look like in a certain eventuality.
Before we get into this, I want to point out
I don't think this conversation is necessary.
However, there has been a whole lot of coverage
about this topic, and it has prompted a lot of questions.
So we're going to go through it.
There's been a lot of coverage about the possibility
of Putin deploying a tactical nuke inside of Ukraine.
And the question that has arisen from that coverage
is what a US response would look like.
And we'll go through the various options and likelihood.
But again, I do want to point out
that everything I'm about to say, Putin knows.
Putin knows everything that I'm about to say.
And again, this is a tactical device, not
a full-blown exchange.
Putin is aware that nobody wins that game either.
OK.
So the first thing would be to look at the diplomatic routes.
What would happen in that international poker game
where everybody's cheating?
Everybody suddenly cares about the rules.
A whole bunch of countries that are
tolerant of Russia's current actions
suddenly become very hostile.
This is something that has been viewed as off the table
since the end of World War II.
This isn't something that anybody wants.
Once they start getting used, the worry
is they'll be used more often.
So the international community is very much against them
being used in any way.
So if Putin was to use one, it would further
damage their economy.
It would cut them off from supplies
they need to run the conventional aspect of the war
and further isolate them.
That all happens without NATO or the US pushing.
Then there's the supplies.
People will talk about how much the West is providing Ukraine.
The reality is we're not sending them the best of the best,
not even close.
There's a lot of limitations on what
the United States and other NATO countries
are willing to provide Ukraine.
Because the concern is that Ukraine
uses it to strike inside of Russia's borders,
and NATO doesn't want that.
And we'll get to why in a minute.
If a tactical nuke was used, yeah, those rules,
they don't matter anymore.
So the weapon systems that the US and NATO
had been holding back, Ukraine would suddenly
have them, which would put Russian cities in jeopardy.
Now, the next step would be a direct NATO-US response.
Petraeus recently kind of talked about this possibility,
and he said, well, the US would destroy the Black Sea Fleet
and hit every target they could find inside of Ukraine.
Yes, and.
I'm of the belief that if Putin deployed a tactical nuke,
it wouldn't stop there.
Anything that was outside of Russia's borders,
any military asset that Russia possesses
that is outside of their borders becomes a target.
That means the contractors they have in Africa.
That means the advisors they have training allied countries
or countries that have bought weapon systems from them.
This means subs.
This means ships.
This means anything that isn't inside Russia's borders.
It's important to remember that the United States and NATO
do not have to respond to a tactical nuke
with nukes of their own.
The warfighting capability of NATO
is much greater than that of Russia.
And that is based on assessments before we saw how poorly
the Russian military was performed.
The United States controls the skies.
It's that simple.
They would use that air power.
The US military would use that air power.
And it would cripple Russian warfighting capability.
Anything outside of those borders is gone.
The US won't strike inside of Russia's borders
because that could trigger a full exchange.
So that's what it would theoretically look like.
It would be limited in regards to a nuclear response.
I don't think that's something the US would do over a tactical
nuke.
However, it would be massive in terms
of a conventional response.
This would be something that the international community would
quickly fall behind.
And they would support a NATO endeavor
to degrade Russia's capabilities.
And then you have the covert options,
which if Putin ordered something like that,
I would imagine that he would become
a target as an individual through covert means.
That being said, I don't think this is something
that is likely to happen.
Putin is aware of everything I just said.
Putin is aware, at this point painfully aware,
of how outmatched he is by NATO.
The likelihood of doing something
that would provoke a NATO response at this point
seems slim.
It doesn't seem like something he would do.
Russia already has a black eye from this little endeavor
of theirs.
Turning it into something that would take them
50 years to recover from, it just
doesn't seem like something somebody would do.
It's also worth noting that a lot of the coverage
is based primarily on his rhetoric, rhetoric
that has popped up several times in the past.
And those who were alive during the Cold War
know that it used to be an everyday thing.
It's just still something that people are unaccustomed to,
because we haven't heard it in such a long time.
I wouldn't worry too much about this,
but the number of questions kind of obligated me to respond.
So anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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