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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/11/10 |
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Beau says:
Beau examines the international implications of the US election, from Russia's loss to Biden's signal of stable foreign policy, reflecting shifts in global dynamics.
Policy Analysts, Global Relations Experts
More detailed analysis of specific foreign policy impacts and potential future scenarios.
#US election #Foreign policy #Russia #Biden administration #Global relations
Well, howdy there, Internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about the impacts of the US
election through a different lens.
When we talk about US elections, people
talk about what's happening domestically,
what the balance of power means for different domestic
policies.
It's worth remembering that foreign powers often
have a vested stake in the outcome of US elections.
Some have even recently admitted to attempting
to influence those elections.
So we're going to talk about the US election
through the lens of that international poker
game where everybody is cheating.
The biggest loser, Russia.
Russia was banking on Republicans winning.
Republicans were promising to cut aid to Ukraine.
They had to win in big numbers for that to happen.
And they didn't.
You can expect Russian leadership
to be a lot more demoralized and perhaps lose
their resolve because of this.
This election might actually impact
the outcome of a war.
It might actually bring it to a close faster.
If you look at Russian media, you
would see them praying for Republicans
to win in the hopes that the Republican Party would
stop supporting US allies.
That didn't happen.
Not in the numbers.
Any shift that occurs at this point,
it's not going to be in the numbers necessary to impact
foreign policy at that level.
So it is going to weaken Russian resolve.
What about the rest of Europe?
One of the big issues with Trump was the way
he disrupted foreign policy.
And a lot of Americans, because they don't spend a lot of time
looking at foreign policy, they hear buzzwords,
bumper sticker slogans.
They like the idea of changes.
On the international scene, changes
have to be slow because every card that
is dealt in that poker game influences other players'
decisions.
So there's a lot of planning.
There's a lot of logistics.
There's a lot of thought that goes into shifts
in American foreign policy.
Planning, logistics, and thought.
Do any of those words conjure an image of the Trump
administration?
Not really, right?
The Trump administration was a disaster
for US foreign policy.
Biden coming in in that statement,
you know, we're back, baby, or something like that,
that was a signal, hey, we're resuming
American foreign policy.
We're going to try to be more consistent.
This midterm election was probably
viewed by a lot of administrations in Europe
as kind of a check to see if the United States was going
to remain a stable ally, or it was
going to become weaker and weaker due to a nationalist
tendency.
If the US would fade from importance
on the international stage because of nationalist rhetoric
kind of taking over the foreign policy aspects.
This, again, there wasn't a red wave.
There wasn't a giant rejection of the Biden administration.
And I know, and I've talked about how that may not
be the most accurate read, but it's
how it's going to be read.
It shows a little bit more stability in the United States.
Now, with China, it's probably a wash
because the Republican Party likes to vilify China,
and the Democratic Party is actually tougher on it,
but softer in rhetoric.
So that's where this election lands us on the foreign policy
scene.
Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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