Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2022/11/16 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau breaks down recent events in Poland, Ukraine, and Russia, speculates on various scenarios, and shares his perspective on the potential outcomes without major worry about escalation.
World citizens
Insights on the impact of continued conflict in the region and potential global ramifications.
#Poland #Ukraine #Russia #NATO #Conflict #Geopolitics
Well, howdy there, Internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about Poland and Ukraine and Russia.
We are going to run through the likely scenarios as to what might have happened.
We're going to talk about the reaction and kind of go from there.
If you don't want to watch the whole video, I will say this.
When this occurred, I was on Twitter.
I've talked about it a little bit there already.
I'm not particularly worried.
I did not go and check the filters for my gas mask.
I was getting chili dogs.
I don't see a drastic escalation because of this.
Not to the point that people are worried about anyway.
So what do we know happened for certain?
Something fell into Poland and took out two Polish citizens.
Poland is a member of NATO, and as far as members of NATO that are just really itching
to get into the fight, Poland's at the top of the list.
This couldn't have happened in a worse country for Russia's interests.
Poland is probably more likely to slap that Article 5 button than anybody.
The rest of NATO is probably trying to dissuade them from doing that.
Now that's where that is sitting.
If they do hit the Article 5 button and they say, okay, we're invoking Article 5 and
attack on one is an attack on all, there are a whole bunch of options and steps and escalations
that have to occur before it turns into a nuclear exchange or World War III.
That is where the conversation immediately jumped.
That's not the most likely outcome of this by any means.
There are a whole bunch of other things on the table.
Now as time went on, there became a debate over what actually happened because some photos
emerged and they appeared to show wreckage from the scene and it looked like S-300s.
These are rockets.
They are typically associated with air defense.
So a bunch of people came out and said, oh, it wasn't Russia.
It was Ukraine shooting at something that was Russian and it missed or malfunctioned
and landed in Polish territory.
So no big deal.
And that's a very likely scenario.
The flip side to this is because of the lack of precision guided munitions that Russia
is facing.
We've talked about it on the channel.
We have talked about that shortfall.
They have been pressing weapons into roles they aren't really designed for.
Russia has used S-300s to hit ground targets.
Well, to at least try to hit ground targets.
They weren't incredibly accurate.
That being said, this is a little outside the range of what could be expected if they
did that through, if you're basing it off of what we know about where their forces are.
So that sends it back towards Ukraine in theory.
But that may also explain the wild inaccuracy in literally hitting the wrong country because
we don't have all of this information yet.
There's a bunch of options on the table.
I don't know what I think is more likely.
I hope it was Ukraine.
I hope Ukraine was trying to shoot down something that was Russian and the rockets wound up
in Polish territory.
That is the best case scenario for the world for mitigating risk.
Given Ukraine's successes on the battlefield, I have been a strong proponent of the fact
that I really think Ukraine can do this on their own.
If they do, they come out the other side as a major power in Europe.
So to me, it would be better if it was Ukraine who launched what eventually fell.
But I don't know that that's the case yet.
We don't have all of the information.
It is a developing story.
One thing that we can pretty much assume is that no matter what happened here, it will
be used as a pretext to put more air defense in NATO countries closer to Russia, which
for those who were familiar with Putin's stated concerns, yeah, that's just one more loss
for him.
That was something that he was very concerned about and was a talking point that was issued
as far as why NATO couldn't expand.
But now, given this, it's almost a certainty that that will occur.
So that's where we're at.
I am not incredibly worried about this.
I don't foresee this escalating to the point that a lot of people are suggesting.
And I will spare you all the dark humor that was on Twitter that apparently people did
not find comforting, but I would just relax, wait for the developments to come out, because
I don't think that this is going to turn into the spark that turns this into an all-of-Europe
war.
Now since we're talking about Ukraine, we'll go ahead and say the last video I did about
Ukraine was talking about Herson and saying the Russians are denying they're retreating
and went through all of the stuff that they said they were doing.
And I was like, they're lying.
They're absolutely retreating.
Since then, the major development is that the Russians pulled out of Herson.
Their propaganda was pretty weak there.
And that has occurred.
It gave Ukrainians another very large victory, gave them a lot of territory that they were
able to recapture very quickly.
At this point, Russia has lost more than half of what it took during this war as far as
territory is concerned.
Because as we have talked about before, taking and holding are two very different things.
And Russia is learning that lesson at the cost of tens of thousands of their citizens.
Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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