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Published | 2023/01/06 |
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Beau says:
Beau explains the skepticism surrounding the ceasefire declared by Russia for Christmas, clarifying Ukraine's position and international obligations.
Foreign policy analysts
More in-depth analysis on the potential consequences of Ukraine launching an offensive during the ceasefire and the impact of international support.
#Ukraine #Russia #Ceasefire #InternationalLaw #ConflictResolution
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about Ukraine and Russia and what is and isn't going on there.
And we will talk about the ceasefire that probably isn't and
what exactly went on and why there was so much skepticism.
So if you have no idea what I'm talking about
the Russian government through Putin and through the Russian Orthodox Church
called for a ceasefire for Christmas. Russian Orthodox Christmas comes later
in the year. It should be in effect at the time y'all are watching this I think.
And it's a 36-hour period that they want a ceasefire and they have declared it.
Now, the ceasefire was not agreed to by Ukraine, and Ukraine is under no obligation to abide by it.
Even if Russia wasn't to the aggressor, you don't get to just declare a ceasefire and the fighting stopped.
That's not how this works.
works. Now, the Ukrainian side is less than believing when it comes to the intentions
of the ceasefire. The Russian side is saying that it's to celebrate this religious holiday
and engage in prayer and festivities and all of this. The Ukrainian side believes that
they will use this time to refit, rearm, and resupply and regroup.
The reason they believe that is because Russia is absolutely going to do that.
They've done it in the past during ceasefires.
The lull in fighting, any lull in fighting, would absolutely be used by Russia for that
purpose.
So the Ukrainian belief isn't wrong.
Now they have not agreed to this ceasefire.
I am curious as to how they're going to behave and whether or not they're actually going
to push in a period when Russia says they're not going to fight.
As far as international law, which is the questions coming in about this, Ukraine has
zero obligation to follow this. They do not have to abide by this at all. One
party cannot just suddenly declare it. That's not how this works. The only
thing Ukraine really needs to be concerned about is its targeting. It
would be a propaganda disaster. It would be a PR nightmare if they
hit a bunch of Russian troops who were actually praying. That would go
really really bad and might invigorate the war effort on the Russian side.
That's their only real concern when it comes to this. Now, there have been a few
questions, should Ukraine use this as an opportunity to launch an offensive?
I mean, if they're ready for one, yeah, I mean, that seems like a good idea.
If they would be prepared for that, yeah, why not?
But I don't think that they would do that.
Not out of any respect for the ceasefire, just because I don't know that they are in
position to launch a fresh offensive. I think they would probably want to wait
for the Bradleys that are coming in and if you miss that news the United States
is going to be sending some Bradleys which are infantry fighting vehicles.
They will probably prove pretty effective on the eastern side of that
country. So that's what's going on. The ceasefire was declared. It's probably
not going to be followed, and any complaints about Ukraine not following
it, they're not grounded in international law. You have to have both
parties agree to a ceasefire, for a ceasefire to exist. Anyway, it's just a
With that thought, y'all have a good day.
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