Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2023/01/27 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau advises ignoring early polls and focusing on policy and candidate quality, citing the unpredictability of future political dynamics.
Politically engaged individuals
The importance of staying grounded in policy actions and candidate quality amidst political uncertainty.
#Polls #2024Election #PoliticalStrategy #DemocraticParty #PolicyMaking
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about polling.
We're going to talk about polling for 2024 already.
We're going to do this because I got a message.
The polls that just came out show that the Democratic Party is not in a good position
for the Senate in 2024.
What advice do you have for the Democratic Party as far as formulating strategy?
Okay.
First piece, and this is the most important part, ignore the polls, they do not matter, they're worthless.
It is way too early, way too early to even begin to start to assess what is going to happen in 2024.
2024. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, I would just point out that a lot is
going to change in a normal political cycle this far out. It's just, it's wild to me that
there is even polling or predictions being made right now during normal political times.
There's the economy, the situation in Ukraine, all of this stuff will have an impact on voters,
Supreme Court decisions.
There's a lot of stuff that can change any prediction that is being made right now.
Number two, we're not in normal political times.
I hate to use the word, but we are in an unprecedented situation.
Just a couple of days ago, the number two in the House, in the Democratic Party, their
kid got picked up for assault on an LEO, assaulting a cop.
It barely made the news.
Why?
Because there's a lot of other stuff going on.
I would point out that some of the people that are predicted to hold their seats in
In some of this polling, they're currently under state or federal investigation.
Some of them we are waiting for a quote, imminent charging decision on.
I would imagine if they get indicted, that might change the polling numbers a little
bit.
We are, we're not in normal political times.
So these polls are not worth anything.
They really aren't.
Ignore them.
I would also kind of point out that the strategy at this point for any party should be to do
the job the American people sent you there to do, enact good policy, and focus on candidate
quality. That's what matters. Aside from that, there's nothing that you can really
do, but there is a third reason to ignore these polls and not try to formulate
strategy around them. If these polls were any good, you wouldn't be trying to figure
out how to defend the Senate, you'd be trying to figure out how to retake it.
That was just a few months ago, remember the whole red wave thing?
This is not information that I would base anything on.
The polling models aren't good.
I seriously doubt that over the last couple of months they figured out how to account
for the unlikely voter.
They figured out how to account for the younger generation showing up in numbers that they're
not predicting.
It is way too early to start looking at polling, and we're certainly not going to cover every
one that comes out.
Do the job.
Do the job.
You do that, you don't have to worry about the polling.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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