Input | Output |
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Link | YouTube |
Published | 2023/02/07 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
India's military buildup, including two carrier groups, signals a significant power shift in the Indo-Pacific region with global implications.
Foreign policy analysts
Detailed analysis of the potential geopolitical impacts of India's military expansion.
#India #MilitaryPower #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Navy
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about an Indian power play
because they're making one.
It won't be really evident for a few years, but it is underway.
They have a lot of potential power,
but generally speaking, they don't use it.
They don't project it the way they could.
I feel like a large part of this is
due to a long and tragic history with colonialism,
so they don't like projecting power.
But it seems like they're ready to step into the role
that they are fully capable of.
And I have just realized, I am talking about India, not
Native Americans.
OK, can't wait for all that to be taken out of context.
India is putting out two carrier groups.
Two carrier groups.
They'll have one on each coast.
This is a big development.
This is a move that sends them to the higher stakes poker
table.
They will have the capability to force project.
Now, granted, one of these carriers is aged a little bit.
If I'm not mistaken, it was built by the Soviets.
But the other one, it's brand new,
and it's domestically built. This
means they have the capability to manufacture them.
They have the capability to manufacture carriers.
They have the capability to manufacture carrier groups.
And they have the capability to manufacture combat aircraft.
They will deploy these carrier groups in the Indian Ocean.
This will present a huge check on China.
It's worth remembering, India is a nuclear power.
We don't ever think of them in that light
because they don't force project.
But I want to say they have somewhere between 150 and 350
nukes.
This is a country that has had the potential
to be a world player for a very long time
and is finally starting to ease into that role.
They very likely will have a real nuclear triad soon.
And that is going to stabilize those lines.
We talked about the near-peer contest, the Second Cold War,
whatever you want to call it.
The area around China is going to pick teams.
They're going to line up in various ways.
And it's going to create stabilized lines and areas
of influence, just like the First Cold War in Europe.
India, developing its own capabilities to force project
and to maintain their sphere of influence,
is a huge step in that direction.
Now, keep in mind, they're still a couple of years away.
There's a lot of testing and stuff like that has to go on.
But the big pieces of equipment, they've got it.
They're going to have a real blue water navy.
They're going to have the capability to force project
throughout the region and eventually the world.
This is one of those things that right now,
it's probably going to be under-reported.
You're not going to have a lot of people talking about it.
If it is discussed, it's going to be a blurb.
It's going to be a little thing at the bottom,
at the end of the news show or whatever.
Hey, India has a second carrier group.
And everybody's going to be like, yeah, whatever.
No, that's big.
It's big.
It will help shape the dynamics in the Indo-Pacific area.
We can safely assume that over the next 10 to 15 years,
India is going to emerge as not quite a near peer,
but also not a country that we don't think about.
They're going to influence hands played at the big table.
They're going to be a major part of foreign policy decisions.
And this is relatively new.
They were considered before because they do have
an immense amount of potential power.
But they generally weren't making moves on their own.
The two carrier groups, that's going to allow them to do that.
As they make their own moves, their economic capabilities
will increase as well.
India is in the process of changing.
And it's one of those things that foreign policy analysts
should definitely take into account when they're
estimating what's going to happen in five or 10 years.
Because if India sticks on the track that it's on,
develops a real nuclear triad, develops a blue water navy,
like real capabilities here, it's going to be a huge player.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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