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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/02/20 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
China's potential military aid to Russia in Ukraine aims to keep both sides in conflict, but risks undermining its soft power approach and global reputation.
Foreign policy analysts
The full transcript provides a detailed analysis of China's potential motivations for offering military aid to Russia in Ukraine, along with the implications on global dynamics and foreign policy.
#China #Russia #Ukraine #ForeignPolicy #SoftPower
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about the possibility of China
offering aid to Russia in Ukraine.
We're going to talk about why they might do it
and why they haven't so far.
And we'll just kind of run through the possibilities
and what might happen.
If you've missed it, the U.S. has kind of indicated that they are now concerned China may be considering that.
They may be considering offering military aid to Russia to be used in Ukraine.
It's prompted a message.
Just saw the news about China sending military aid to Russia for Ukraine.
You always say countries don't have friends, they have interest.
What possible interest does China have in Ukraine?
seems better for them if Ukraine wins.
I don't see their interest.
You're asking the right question,
but you're not thinking cheatery enough.
China does not care who wins in Ukraine.
They do not care at all.
Yeah, I mean, I would imagine as far as the grain market
and everything like that, it would be better
for Ukraine to win for them.
But they don't care.
That's not why China would do this if they decide to.
China, generally speaking, has a my name's Paul,
that's between y'all attitude towards Europe.
It's not my business.
That's just a market.
I don't care what you guys do over there.
That's the way they've traditionally looked at it.
The United States could probably learn a lot from looking at a hands-off approach to various
parts of the world like that.
Okay, so if they don't actually care about the outcome of the conflict, why would they
offer military aid?
What does it get them?
What do they get out of it?
That's their interest.
to a lot of coverage. Russia is not performing well. They're not doing well
in this fight. They haven't achieved any of their victory conditions. They haven't
even achieved the victory conditions that they changed the victory conditions
to. They don't control all of the areas that they have quote annexed. They're not
doing well. If China was to give them military aid, keeps them in the fight
longer. Keeps them in the fight longer, which means the West is also going to be
in the fight longer. They're going to have to pay attention to it. China and Russia are not the
great friends that they pretend to be on the international scene, and China is
wanting to counter the West in a lot of ways. There's a scene in a movie where
this guy, he asks an arms dealer, he's like, you know, during this conflict you
armed both sides. Which one did you want to win? And the guy's like, did you ever consider
I wanted them both to lose, that's what China wants here.
They get a degraded military for whoever loses, right?
And then whoever the winner is, they are bogged down in this conflict.
You know, if Russia succeeds in achieving its victory conditions, keep in mind that
just gets them to the hard part.
That just gets them to the occupation part.
So it would take Russia out of the game for a while.
And it would keep the US occupied, the West occupied, which frees up China to make its
moves elsewhere in its traditional sphere of influence and in Africa.
So if it is such a smart move for them, why haven't they done it already?
The same thing that may deter them from doing it now.
China is great at soft power, amazing.
They're the best.
They're better than the US when it comes to exercising soft power, which is money and
influence, not bombs and bullets, right?
When they go into a country in Africa to extract minerals, they're doing, in essence, the same
thing the West does.
But when China does it, they're building railroads and ports and hospitals.
And the deal that the host country gets, it's better.
It's better because China is state-directed.
It's not a bunch of independent firms each trying to extract as much wealth as possible
out of it.
So that host nation, it gets more out of it.
And in a lot of the world, China is seen as like the good guy big power because their
deals are more symbiotic.
If China starts arming parties to conflicts that it's not involved in, that reputation
will start to be ruined.
Because once you do it once, well, I mean, you might as well do it again.
And eventually China's foreign policy will look like the United States foreign policy.
That's bad.
I mean, I would definitely prefer that the US take pointers from China on how to exercise
soft power than China take pointers from the US on military aid and what it can do for
national interests.
The world would be better off.
So while they're talking about it, part of it may just be rhetoric because their balloon
got blown up, and part of it may be them seriously considering it. At the same
time, the reason they haven't done it is their foreign policy experts, who have
wielded all of this soft power successfully, they know what I just said.
They know that once you cross that line, and you really start doing that, and you
start playing the Masters of the Universe game where you're hoping that
conflict lasts longer because it's better for you, they know that once you
go down that road it's really hard to turn around and it would undermine all
of the goodwill that they've generated because once they do it in Ukraine, well
they may do it in Mali next and people will see that. So that's their possible
reason for doing it and a really good reason why they may not. When you're
looking at it through a US-style foreign policy, yeah of course you would do it.
Yeah you keep that fighting going as long as possible because that's good for
US national interests keeps them unstable. China's foreign policy is softer
and they may not do it because it would undermine all of the goodwill that
that they've built.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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