Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/02/23 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau sheds light on the split within the Russian military command structure, with tensions rising between Wagner and the regular army, posing a significant threat to Putin's control.
Observers, policymakers, analysts.
The full transcript provides a detailed analysis of the escalating tensions within the Russian military command structure, offering valuable insight into the potential implications for Putin's control and Russia's war efforts.
#RussianMilitary #CommandStructure #Tensions #Putin #Wagner #InternationalRelations
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about a statement made by
somebody in the Russian command structure.
There are two important pieces to it.
One gives us some insight into how their command and
control is functioning at the moment.
And the other settles a debate that is occurring.
One of these I have a little bit of a personal interest in
because 30 days ago, I put out a video
and I talked about how the introduction of Grasimov,
bringing him to be the commander over what
was going on in Ukraine, was probably
indicative of a split within the Russian military command
structure with Wagner on one side and the regular military on the other, and I got a
lot of pushback for that, a whole lot of pushback for that.
It is now 30 days later.
The commander of Wagner is openly accusing Gorosimov and people within the regular army
Russian command of things that can, quote,
be likened to high treason.
According to him, the traditional Russian military
structure, keep in mind Wagner functions more as their special
operations.
Well, at least it did.
Now they've turned them into basically shock troops.
but it did at one time function as their special operations community
and the regular army. The two are separate
and now there's fighting between them.
The commander of Wagner is saying
that the regular military
is just
ignoring them.
That there are commands coming down from Grasimov
that uh...
Wagner's troops
Well, they don't get ammo, they don't get air, they don't get anything, and his troops
are just out there exposed with no support.
That split is real, and that is incredibly damaging to the Russian war effort because
when you look at the maps, it seems pretty clear that Wagner is going to play, or was
intended to play a large part in any offensive in the East. If they're not
getting support and this kind of tension exists between the two factions and now
it has spilled over into the public's view, that's gonna be really bad. It's
gonna be really hard to get things done for them. He said that the orders going
out to not provide them with air support, would not provide them with ammo, quote,
can be likened to high treason in the very moment when Wagner is fighting in
Buckland, losing hundreds of its fighters every day. And that's the other
piece of information. There are estimates that are being contested by those people
who don't want to admit the situation that Russia is in. Those estimates are
suggesting that Russia's lost equal about 5,000 a week. At Bakhmut, Wagner's
commander is saying that they are losing hundreds per day at that one location.
Those estimates are right. This settles the debate. This is coming not from
Western intelligence estimates. It's not coming from the Ukrainians. This is
coming from the commander of the group that is getting hit pretty heavily. Just
at one location, hundreds per day. Those numbers are correct. So this outburst,
and it was an outburst, if you hear it, he's raising his voice, he's yelling, he's
very emotional. Spilling into the public view provided Western intelligence with
a whole lot. And if you're looking for confirmation of those estimates, it's
there. If you're looking for confirmation of the split, it's there.
These conditions are really bad for Putin. It's bad for the troops, their
morale is going to suffer, logistics is going to suffer, command and control is
going to suffer, but for Putin it's really bad because now you have
competing factions that control armed groups and one of them is going to end
up being pushed out. If the one that gets pushed out decides they don't want
to be pushed out and decides to act, they're not going to act against the
generals. They're going to act against Putin. This split is very dangerous for
are the occupant of the Kremlin.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Have a good day.
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