Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/03/02 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
A theory suggests Trump's indictment could rally Republicans in the primary, but general election success remains doubtful due to his divisive nature and past actions.
Political analysts, voters
Insights into the potential impact of Trump's influence on the Republican Party's future direction and strategies.
#Trump #RepublicanParty #PoliticalAnalysis #ElectionStrategy #PrimaryElection
Well, howdy there Internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about a new theory that is being floated within political
circles.
Those who analyze politics, there is a new pet theory and a whole bunch of questions
have come in about it.
And it deals with the Republican primary and trumps chances.
And it's a theory that on the surface, I mean it actually sounds like it may be true.
but when you look a little bit deeper, it kind of starts to fall apart. The idea
is that Trump being indicted will help him. It will help him. It will cause
Republicans to like rally around him because you know it's a political witch
hunt and all that stuff and that's the general idea of it. I get it. It makes
sense. He is really good at energizing a base. He is really good at rallying
people to him and playing the victim. That's something that he does.
Here's the thing about that. That's Republicans. More importantly, that's
primary Republicans. The more extreme, the more involved, those who would go out
vote in a primary. Remember, primary turnout is lower than general.
So it may be true. It may help him win a primary. That part's accurate. That part is accurate.
We saw it. We saw a bunch of people float baseless claims during 2022, and they won the primary.
and then they lost in the general. Can't win a primary without Trump, can't win a
general with him. That also applies to Trump. It is worth remembering that
Trump became president-reject before the 6th, before all of these claims, before
what is widely perceived in the United States as an attack on foundational
philosophical elements of the country. He got voted out before then. People who
voted against him are not going to suddenly change their mind and vote for
him because he claims that everything's politically motivated. That's not going
to occur. It might help him win the primary. That part is accurate, but the
idea that that will somehow turn into general election success for him, that
seems, that seems kind of far-fetched. The amount of bad things that he did, that
he is accused of doing, that he is perceived to have done, after he was
voted out of office drove more of the independence away. I don't I don't see
that as a realistic possibility. Trump's real danger, the real threat that exists
from him towards the Democratic Party is his ability to shape what other
Republicans do. That's where he still has a lot of power and you're already seeing
it, you're already seeing possible Republican primary opponents kind of declined to say
where they disagree with him because he's still shaping the party.
And you have a lot of potential primary candidates engaging in the same type of behavior and
catering their moves to social media because they think it translates into votes.
What we learned in 2020 and 2022 is that it doesn't.
I understand the theory and it makes sense in a limited scope when it comes to the primary.
I don't know that it is going to matter when it comes to the general.
The primary is a different thing.
are the most extreme Republicans, the most heavily invested Republicans, and
there's a possibility that those who don't like Trump split the
non-Trump vote up enough to where he actually wins. But I would be
incredibly surprised if we see him in the White House again. That would be a
big shock to me. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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