Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/03/17 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau examines the potential repercussions of Russia recovering a reaper drone and the broader implications on international dynamics.
Tech analysts, policymakers, military strategists.
Deeper analysis of the potential consequences for Ukraine and the US if Russia successfully retrieves the drone.
#Russia #ReaperDrone #Geopolitics #MilitaryTechnology #USUkraineRelations
Well, howdy there, internet people.
It's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk a little bit
about the idea of Russia getting their hands on it.
It's become a thing, a talking point.
And I've had a couple of questions, basically saying,
I'm really surprised you didn't bring this up.
So we're going to go through the different scenarios.
I didn't bring it up because I think it's a little early
to speculate on any of it.
But we'll go through some of the different options,
of the different things that could occur. Now, if you have no idea what I'm talking about, we're
talking about the reaper that went down. There are indications at time of filming that Russia
is going to try to recover it, and this leads to a whole bunch of different scenarios that could show
up. Okay, so first, it is unlikely that there's much for them to work with. The
US has stated that they took measures in this regard. What those measures
are, don't really know, and we probably won't find out anytime soon. But even
Even just a normal, quote, unguided flight or a sky-earth conflict tends to render light
aircraft like that separated out a lot.
There's probably not going to be a whole lot for them to work with.
But let's say they get it.
Okay, what happens next?
The concern in the media is that Russia is going to get their hands on this tech and
reverse-engineer it and use it?
Yeah, I mean, that's possible.
It's possible.
But the reality is what we have seen in Ukraine
suggests that Russia is not up to the task.
They are not a technologically advanced military.
They are not in a position to be able to successfully reverse-engineer
it and then produce something similar,
actually exploit the information that they're gaining from it, and then
integrate it into the military that they have today. Is this something that could
happen later? Yes, yes it is, but by that point US tech is going to be even further
ahead. The real concern is not Russia getting it and doing something with it.
The real concern is Russia getting it and giving it to the Chinese military who
actually do have the capability to exploit it. That's real. That's a much
more realistic concern from from where I'm sitting. Now is that going to happen?
Maybe, but again depends on how much they can get. The thing that is actually
surprising about this to me is that Russia is doing this in a somewhat
public fashion and there may be unintended consequences from it.
There have been a lot of pieces of equipment that Ukraine can really use that would be
very beneficial to Ukraine and the reason that the US hasn't provided them is the risk
of them falling into Russian hands and then Chinese hands and so on and so forth.
If the Russians are successful at recovering large portions, or the sensitive portions,
of a reaper, well, that concern doesn't exist anymore.
And it may alter the thinking when it comes to what the United States is willing to provide
to Ukraine.
I will tell you that the way Russia is fighting right now, they would not fare well against
a Ukrainian military with Reapers.
That would be a game changer.
That's actually the more surprising part of this to me.
The Russian government has to understand, on some level, they have to know that if they
are successful in this, they're removing one of the key reasons they're not facing
this thing on a battlefield.
And understand, a reaper is good for surveillance, but it's called a reaper for a reason.
It doesn't have to be unarmed.
And that would alter the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine.
So that to me is the more surprising part.
The ability to reverse engineer it, sure they can do it, but by the time they're in a position
to be able to exploit it, the US tech is going to be further ahead.
Real concern is them getting it, understanding their own limitations, and giving it to the
Chinese military who would be able to do something with it a whole lot faster.
But all of this is contingent on what they can actually get out of the water, what they
can actually recover.
And DOD statements seem to indicate that they're not too concerned about it.
Now that could just be posturing.
don't know. When it comes to something like this, this falls into that area where the
Department of Defense, there really shouldn't be an expectation that what they're saying
in the press conference is true, because it may be in DOD's best interest to project
an image to Russia, to message to Russia about it, but we're going to have to wait and see
what Russia is actually capable of bringing up and what they're able to recover.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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