Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/05/02 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau dissects the debt ceiling issue, foreseeing a nail-biting scenario leading up to a potential clean bill passing as a likely resolution before June 1st.
US citizens, policymakers
Insights on the potential economic repercussions and broader implications of failing to address the debt ceiling issue effectively.
#DebtCeiling #USPolitics #McCarthy #Biden #McConnell
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bo again.
So today we are going to talk about the debt ceiling
and McCarthy and Biden and McConnell
and the timeline changes and everything that's going on
because there've been a lot of developments
and people might start getting apprehensive at this point.
Okay, so the first major development
is that there is a new timeline
for when we will hit the debt ceiling.
Looks like it could be as soon as June 1st.
Biden has called for a meeting
with congressional leaders on May 9th.
McCarthy has his budget slash debt ceiling increase
that nobody wants.
Nobody wants that budget.
His own party is upset about it.
McConnell has basically said, I'm not saving McCarthy.
He didn't use those words, but he has indicated that he has little
interest in coming in and playing rescuer.
So what is your most likely chain of events here?
They have their meeting.
It is theoretically possible that Biden and McCarthy work out some deal.
Seems unlikely because Biden has to know that any deal that comes through is going
be really hard for McCarthy to get back through the House because he is Speaker of the House,
but nobody listens to him.
So it's unlikely that he'll be able to unify Republicans behind a plan.
So even if some deal gets worked out, it seems unlikely that it would actually pass and certainly
not in a timeline of 21 days or something like that. Okay, so we're moving that from
the list of possibilities and entertaining it. Yeah, it could happen, but it seems kind
of unlikely. What is likely? A nail biter. A nail biter where everything is choreographed,
it's going to come down to the wire, well at least it might. Imagine a clean debt
ceiling increase, no budget attached to it, passing in the Senate. Could happen.
There are enough Republicans who understand the severity of the situation,
and I would suggest that McConnell's unwillingness to get involved in this has
something to do with that. So clean debt ceiling passes over in the
Senate, then it goes to the House where it just waits. And basically this goes
through right before the the debt ceiling is set to be hit as close as
they can they can manage because there are probably enough Republicans in the
House willing to cross over and vote for that but they're gonna want a show of it.
they're going to want to be able to say that they held out for as long as they
could but they had to vote this way for the good of the country blah blah blah
and it will be Republicans that are vulnerable in their next election. That
seems to be the most likely outcome. If that happens I would suggest that Kevin
McCarthy may not be speaker anymore. He put a whole lot of his reputation on this
and now with the timeline change he doesn't really have time to hammer out a
deal with Biden and then get the support through the Republican Party because the
hardliners they have no they don't necessarily even want to compromise at
all. So he may not get anywhere with them. It looks like McConnell's secret rescue plan
is to allow a clean debt ceiling in the Senate without much of a fight.
Of course, he would never say that because he's a Republican, but that seems like the most likely
chain of events. Again, still possible that Biden and McCarthy work out some kind of deal, it goes
back to the House and the Republicans are there, are worried about their own financial state,
so they would go ahead and pass it and say it's a win. Seems unlikely, but it's still possible.
But I think the the most likely outcome is we're all gonna get real nervous as
June 1st approaches and then a clean bill passes and then they negotiate the
budget later. So that's where we're at. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a
Have a good day.
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