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Published | 2023/05/07 |
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Beau says:
US estimates Russia's limitations in Ukraine, foresee prolonged conflict with no speedy resolution in sight.
Foreign policy analysts
Insights on potential diplomatic solutions and international intervention efforts.
#ForeignPolicy #Russia #Ukraine #MilitaryIntelligence #ConflictAnalysis
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Beau again.
So today, we are going to talk about US estimates
and assessments of the situation in Ukraine,
as well as some developments inside Russia.
The US kind of gave a briefing of sorts
and laid out what they believed was the situation
as far as what Russia wanted
and what Russia was capable of, and where they planned on going from here.
The short version of it is that Putin understands
he can't take the whole country.
He still wants to, but he understands he doesn't have the capability
to do it.
And U.S. intelligence believes
that he is going to attempt to solidify control
in the occupied areas and then try to get a break, get more equipment, get more ammo,
kind of allow his troops to rest and then renew it later.
This is occurring at the same time as the boss of Wagner releasing a video standing
in front of his lost, screaming at Russian generals, traditional military, about their
inability to supply him with ammo.
The videos out there, I don't suggest you watch it, to be honest.
The political infighting in Russia is increasing and it's becoming more and more public and
more and more dramatic.
The estimates also suggest that Russia will not be able to launch a major offensive this
year.
In fact, they kind of indicate that unless Russia engages in another mobilization and
finds new partners to get weapons from, they probably won't be able to engage in moderate
offensives.
The flip side to this is that the U.S. estimates kind of suggest that Ukraine is not capable
of achieving its goals through military means alone, meaning the U.S., at least the military
intelligence portion, doesn't believe that Ukraine can drive Russia out.
Okay, so first and foremost, the United States has consistently overestimated Russia and
underestimated Ukraine.
The track record of saying this is what Ukraine is capable of doing, it's not good.
They have underestimated them consistently since day one.
I have no reason to believe that's changed.
I have a little bit more faith in their ability to engage in operations in the East.
The South, Crimea, that's going to be hard.
Nobody's going to doubt that.
But I don't think it's impossible.
I also think that, as is typically the case, the United States is underestimating the adaptability
of Ukrainian forces, which is one of the things that has proven to be a deciding factor, their
ability to integrate weapon systems and use them in ways that Western militaries probably
wouldn't, but they do it well.
So I don't know how much faith I have in the U.S. estimate of Ukrainian capability.
When it comes to their assessment of Russia, I would hope that Putin understands he's not
taking the country by now.
I would hope that that has finally reached him.
As far as them not being able to mount any offensives, that's probably true too.
I don't know that he's going to want a break to re-up.
I don't know that there are conditions set right now to even talk about a ceasefire.
I don't think that that's really on the table at the moment.
I mean, there might be some diplomatic stuff going on behind the scenes that just isn't
leaking out, but from what I've seen, I don't think that's in the cards.
I would point out that US estimates said that the previous Ukrainian counteroffensive was
pretty much impossible and that Russia was going to take the country in like three days.
The subtext to this though, and the part that I think most people really need to process,
all of these estimates are based on timelines that are pretty lengthy.
They're talking about their inability to launch an offensive this year.
version, the subtext of this entire briefing is, hey, it's May, the troops will not be home by
Christmas. For those who are in the West and are expecting a speedy end, I haven't seen any
estimates that suggest that's something that's going to occur and it's something
that it's something that those who are involved in this those who are
politically supportive of it need to keep in mind I don't see this ending
before the end of the year either. They may surprise everybody, but it just
doesn't seem likely. At the same time, Ukraine has a pretty good track
record of surprising everybody. So anyway it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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