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Published | 2023/05/29 |
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Beau says:
Belarus-Russia nuke offer: strategic foreign policy or looming disaster? Spread of nukes sparks concerns, but implementation could be disastrous.
Foreign Policy Analysts
Explanation on the potential global implications and reactions to the offer of tactical nuclear weapons.
#Russia #Belarus #NuclearWeapons #ForeignPolicy #Security
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about Russia and Belarus
and that announcement and whether or not it was a good idea
and how an idea, just like anything else,
needs to be done in moderation.
If you missed it, the head of Belarus basically said,
Hey, if you join, you know, our union state with Russia,
Russia will give you nukes.
Whole bunch of eyebrows went up.
Okay, so before we go further,
this is one of those videos where I'm explaining
how something works, not saying I agree with it.
I am obviously against the spread of nuclear weapons.
That being said, is it a smart foreign policy move
on Russia's part?
Yeah, it is.
There are a lot of countries all over the world
that are adversarial to the West.
And they're probably reluctant to cozy up to Russia
because Russia doesn't actually have
the greatest history either.
And after seeing what has happened in Ukraine,
the idea that Russia would be able to protect
country from the West, that doesn't really hold a lot of water. But if they
could convince these countries that they might get possession of tactical nuclear
weapons, well maybe that's a reason for them to kind of warm up to Moscow. It
makes sense. Now there's a couple of little caveats here. First and foremost
is they're not actually going to be giving them nukes. They're going to be
duplicating what the US does, which is placing US nukes in another country and
still retaining control of them. It's there for their defense, but make no
mistake about it, Russia is going to have control of it, which it's when you're
talking about tactical stuff, there's still a big proliferation worry there
and the security is... there's a lot of issues and criticisms that are going to
arise from this, but they're going to arise from countries that are already
adversarial to Russia. So it's not like they are really going to consider them
that much. So the offer is a good move on the foreign policy stage, not saying the
spread of nukes is a good thing. Following through with it, to any large
degree, that's a horrible move. The offer is smart, making people think that that's
a possibility is smart. Actually handing out nukes like candy, it's not a good
move and it's not just from the perspective of the spread of nuclear
weapons is bad. Russia, prior to this conflict, was perceived as a near-peer.
Militarily, they're not. Not anymore. The only reason they even remotely retain
that status is the fact that they have nukes. They have a large nuclear arsenal.
That's it. If they start handing them out, it doesn't really elevate the status of the countries that they're positioned
in.
Because realistically, if the US, as an example, wanted to spread democracy there or whatever,
The other countries don't have the air defense to stop wherever that thing is stored from being destroyed in the opening
wave.
So, militarily it's not going to be super effective. It's a cool deterrent, nice foreign policy piece, but they start
handing them out. out, it doesn't raise the security of that country, and it also puts the West in a position
and the civilians of the West in a position where they might see a nuclear power be hit.
They had nukes and the US took them down without an issue.
a really bad precedent for Russia to set. Going up against Russia versus a smaller country
that has even less military power is very different, but the average American isn't
going to know that. They're not going to view it that way. As soon as Russia gives
a tactical nuke to country X, and then a Western power defeats country X, it sets the idea
that, well, that can be done.
It doesn't increase the prestige of the countries that are receiving them, it lowers
Russia's, because then there are going to be a bunch of countries that have bad
militaries and have nukes.
So the offer, putting that out there, that's smart on the foreign policy scene.
Following through with it, oh, that's a horrible idea.
I don't, I don't foresee Russia actually transferring them to
a lot of countries, especially countries that are not directly territorially connected to
Russia or those that just decide to become allies or help them evade sanctions or whatever
now.
It's a nice propaganda stunt and it's probably the best foreign policy decision they've made
since this whole thing started.
But if they follow through with it, something that's good becomes bad.
If Russia is smart, this is a promise that takes a really long time to fulfill.
We have to make sure security is up to snuff in your country.
We have to make sure that the stability is there.
have to be a long-term member and they'll start setting more conditions on
it to push the actual transfer back. But at the end of it, Russia's probably still
going to maintain 100% control of this stuff at all times. It'll just be
pre-positioned in their country. Now the obvious question, is this something to
worry about? The spread of nuclear weapons is always something to worry
about. But I don't think that this means something is imminent. This is a bold
foreign policy move, not a military one. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a
Have a good day.
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