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Published | 2023/06/24 |
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Beau says:
Tensions rise in Russia as a direct confrontation looms between traditional military and private forces, potentially leading to a coup or popular uprising, pending Putin's response.
International observers, policymakers
Detailed analysis of potential outcomes and impacts beyond immediate conflict resolution
#Russia #MilitaryConflict #Wagner #Putin #Confrontation #PrivateForces
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bo again.
So today we are going to talk a little bit more
about what's going on in Russia
and provide a little bit of an update to the information
we had just a few hours ago,
because there have been a number of developments
and we're going to kinda just go through them.
For those who don't know, a little bit of a recap,
things are very quickly moving towards
a state of direct confrontation between the traditional conventional state sanctioned
military of Russia and their private contracting force, Wagner.
Tensions have been boiling over for quite some time.
There have been a number of signs that something like this was coming and we've talked about
it on the channel.
Okay so what do we know?
this point, yes. Wagner has made a move. They are making a move. They have crossed
into Russian territory from Ukraine. Numbers, we're gonna use top end on this
because those are the numbers that Moscow is going to have to count on and
figure when it comes to trying to combat it. Top end looks like about 25,000.
That's a force, that's not a little thing.
We have confirmed at least two separate direct engagements between Russian forces, state
forces and the private forces.
It's worth remembering that the contracting firm, they have a lot of people who are
a lower end, but they're hardened by battle. They also have a lot of
incredibly experienced contractors. The state services that are available inside
Russia at this point, it's not really the Russian Army. It's more of a
National Guard, but that doesn't really cut it for an American comparison
because the National Guard is much better trained. This is not a fair fight
if it goes to similar numbers on each side it's not a fair fight. Wagner has
claimed that they have taken the Southern Military District HQ, the
headquarters there in Rostov-on-Don. Huge if true, huge. So to put that in an
American context, this would be similar to somebody taking the Green Zone during
the US invasion and occupation of Iraq. It is not just a headquarters, it is also
a massive logistical hub. There's going to be a lot of equipment there, equipment
that the private forces can then use. That was a, that was a major move. It does
appear to be true at this point. Okay, so what else? What happens next? Moscow has
respond, okay? The boss of the private side. There's no going back now. There is
no going back. This is one of those the die is cast type of things. He has to
attempt to see this through to whatever his aims are. Keep in mind in the West,
there is a general tone of it's a full-blown coup attempt. That may be true.
that may be true. It may also be true that it is more limited in
nature and he is just trying to rid the Russian military of commanders that he
finds less than adequate. That is also a possibility. This may not be a full-blown
coup attempt. It may be more limited in scope. At the same time, from Moscow's
point of view, it doesn't matter. The response has to be the same, which is overwhelming.
If Putin lets this slide, he won't remain in power very long, because he will be sending the message
that removing leadership by force is not something that is going to be met with force.
So odds are there is going to be a direct confrontation of some kind. The odds of
one of them backing down right now, it's still within the
realm of possibility, but it doesn't seem likely. As soon as shots were fired, it's
no longer theoretical, it's no longer political posturing between lower
ranking people from Putin's point of view. This has gotten loud. There has to
be a response from the state side and there's no backing out from the private
Now, for their part, Russian state media is doing a great job of basically telling
everybody, hey, everything is fine, there's nothing to see here, nothing is
happening, don't worry about the fact that you're on fire. Keep in mind, you
This isn't happening in secret. The military vehicles are rolling
through the streets. Is it possible that this really spiral into a full-blown coup?
Yeah, absolutely. This is something that could become a popular uprising. Not with
the forces that the private side has alone, but if the civilian populace
decides to side with them, it absolutely could. And given Russian response to
mobilizations and the fact that we know there are non-state actors that are
already operational inside Russia, it's not something that can be discounted.
It's something that could happen and in some ways it's more likely than not. It
It depends on Putin's response in whether or not state forces can actually muster a
real response.
To my knowledge, the private side doesn't have a lot of air.
Russia does.
Russia has some air power that it can use here.
One of the other questions that has come in repeatedly is, what is Ukraine going to do?
Listen, there are two schools of thought in a situation like this.
One is Wagner pulled a bunch of people off the line, it's time to hit them.
The other is, this might be an end to the war and you don't want to commit people to
fight who may not come back if you don't have to.
I'm not there, I'm not second guessing anybody's decision in this regard.
There are a whole lot of unknowns and there's a lot of variables at play.
This is becoming very real very quickly and it's a situation that could have very long
lasting impacts and it could spiral in a bunch of different directions.
So it's something that we'll keep watching, keep covering.
are asking about the odds of Putin being removed, I don't know yet. We have to see
what the Russian people decide. The real decision here, it's not going to be made
on the battlefield between the private forces and the state forces. It's going
to be made in the minds of the Russian populace and what they decide and how
they decide to respond. If they do nothing, the state forces probably have
an edge. If they come out into the street, it very well could be Swan Lake.
Anyway, it's just a thought, y'all have a good day.
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