Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/09/27 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau delves into a story about Russian officers potentially selling information to Ukrainian Special Operations, stressing that the truth holds little significance compared to anticipating responses in a climate of paranoia and distrust.
Analysts, strategists, commentators
Insights into the nuances of military paranoia and distrust, and the potential consequences of investigating a believable yet possibly fabricated story.
#Russia #Military #Investigation #Truth #Paranoia
Well, howdy there, internet people.
Let's bow again.
So today we are going to talk about a story that has emerged.
And there's debate over whether or not it is true.
And we're going to talk about the story, talk about the
likelihood of it being true, and then we're going to talk
about why it doesn't matter whether it is or not.
This is a common occurrence, and we've actually covered
something similar in the past where the story, its truth, how accurate it is, is
irrelevant because it's completely believable. Okay, so what's the story? If
you haven't heard, the story is that some Russian officers that hadn't been
getting paid or something like that, some Russian officers that were stationed in
Crimea, they were upset that they sold information to a local partisan
organization. That information was passed along to the Ukrainian Special
Operations people and that's what happened to that headquarters. Is it true?
true? Maybe, but it doesn't matter. So, it could be true. That very well could be exactly what
happened. It could also be a planted story. Okay. But it doesn't matter. And whether or not
Russian command believes it, it doesn't matter because they still have to investigate it.
because here are the facts as they know them. Ukrainian special operations pulled
off an incredibly precise operation at the exact time it needed to be pulled
off. They had to get the information from somewhere and from Russian officers who
might know travel arrangements or something like that. I mean that's as
good a place as any to get it. So the story is believable. That means they have
to investigate it. Even if they think that the Ukrainian intelligence just
planted it, made it up to make them investigate it, they still have to do it
because they can't blow it off because what if they're wrong then it would
happen again. But here's the thing, in a political climate like the one that
exists in Russia right now, in a military that is undergoing, let's just say, rapid
leadership changes because of questionable loyalties, if you are sent
somewhere to find somebody who has betrayed Russia, you're gonna find them
whether or not it exists. The story is believable therefore they're going to act
on it. The story has hit the news in the US. It is certainly all over Crimea which
means there is more distrust. Is it possible that some officers sold the
information? Sure. It's also possible that one of them told Dorogaya in the
morning. Just let it slip. The Russian command, they don't have the loyalty of
of the people around them. They're occupying the area. So most people that
they interact with, they don't have any loyalty to them. So anything they let
slip, any scrap of paper that hits the trash can, it's all intelligence and it
can all be passed back through a partisan organization. Now the flip side
of this is maybe they don't have a partisan organization and they made the
whole thing up and they're going to burn a whole bunch of resources that belong to
Russia as Russia looks through it. And they try to find this organization that
doesn't exist, but maybe it does. That's what makes stuff like this so
successful. As long as the story is believable, it has to be investigated.
When that investigation occurs in a military that is just wracked with paranoia and distrust,
they're going to find the traitor.
That traitor, they may have never spoken to anybody who's Ukrainian.
They may have never provided any information to anybody.
the allegation has been made, somebody will be tasked with finding the traitor
and they will because if they don't well then maybe they're the traitor.
Feeding on that kind of paranoia, it's a smart psychological move. Now the real
question that people are asking, did it happen?
No clue and nobody's going to know until after the war. There are a whole bunch
of ways they could have gotten that information. One of those many ways is
that some officers who were unhappy with the situation, with their leadership,
provided it. That's an option and it is an option that's going to be
investigated. When it comes to this kind of stuff, there's not a lot of value in
trying to figure out what's true. The real value is trying to figure out what
the responses are going to be because the truth doesn't matter in this
situation at all. It's the first casualty. What matters is is it believable and
will the opposition react to it? And they're absolutely going to because it
is believable. So I can't tell you whether or not some disloyal officers
provided information to Ukraine, to some very murky partisan organization. I can't
tell you whether or not that happened, but I can tell you that in short order
Remember, somebody from Russian counter-intelligence, they'll find that person.
Anyway, it's just a thought, y'all have a good day.
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