Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/10/02 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Arizona Senate race for 2024: Sinema's conservative shift, Gallego's normal approach, and Lake's eccentricity shape a significant and unique three-way battle for the Senate majority.
Voters
Insights into how each candidate's campaign strategies and voter appeal might evolve as the race progresses.
#Arizona #SenateRace #2024Elections #KirstenSinema #CarrieLake #Gallego
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bo again.
So today we are going to talk about Arizona and cinema
and Lake and Gallego and how things are shaping up
for the Senate race in 2024
because it might get really interesting
and it's probably going to be incredibly important
when it comes to who gets the majority in the Senate.
So, it appears that the Republican challenger will be Carrie Lake, looks like she is announcing.
Now Sinema, who is the incumbent, elected as a Democrat, became an independent.
She appears to be gearing up for a re-election run herself.
It looks like the pitch says that she thinks she can get 10 to 20 percent of the Democratic
vote, 60 to 70 percent of the independent vote, and 25 to 35 percent of the Republican
vote.
That is her path to victory.
how it's being framed. For context, in 2018 she got 97% of the Democratic vote,
50% of the Independent vote, and 12% of the Republican vote. So she is planning
to position herself as more conservative than she currently is, and there are
going to be people laughing at that, especially, you know, those who watch
this channel because she was not she was not somebody that anybody would call a
progressive Democrat or even a liberal one she was very conservative but it
looks like she's going to have to bank even further to the right basically
become a Bush era Republican if she's trying to get those numbers from those
voting blocks, that's how she's going to have to angle herself. Now the Democratic
Party, it looks like the likely candidate for Senate is going to be
Gallego. Under normal circumstances, if you have an independent who used to be
part of a party, that party is the group that has to worry because obviously
that independent would be taking votes from them. In this case that may not be
what happens because it looks like, not just is there the whole thing with a
whole lot of Democrats being very upset with the incumbent, she also appears to
be angling to get the Republican vote. Carrie Lake is, let's just call her
eccentric, she is not widely loved among moderate Republicans, so Sinema has a
shot at getting those if she puts out the right messaging. Lake is very much, I
believe she was described at one point in time as Trump in Hills to include a
whole bunch of election stuff. So she's going to be capturing the far right. If
this is the case and this plan by Sinema, this is actually how she plans on winning,
is going after those voting blocks, it really seems like what Gallego needs to
do is just be normal. It seems as though the the numbers would favor him if he
just ran a very normal campaign and let Lake be Lake and watch as cinema tries
convert from Democrat to independent to somebody who's trying to capture a
quarter minimum of the Republican vote. Consistency is key here, I think. It's a
unique situation. Any three-way race is unique in the U.S., but with these
particular people it's probably going to be let's just say eventful. Now starting
place just looking at the numbers I kind of think
Gallego would have an edge assuming that they just run a normal campaign like
nothing special don't don't do anything unusual and the numbers are there
because it seems unlikely that cinema is going to get an increase in independent
voters over what she got in 2018 that leaves a massive chunk of independent
voters up for grabs and they're certainly not gonna go for Lake not in
any large numbers the numbers are there and it's an important race because of it
being a three-way race, and because the majority is going to hang in the balance here.
This is one of those races that even this early, this one's going to matter.
And with the characters involved, I would expect a lot of coverage, I would expect a
lot of fireworks.
The Democratic nominee, the best strategy is to just stay out of it.
Stay out of the inevitable mudslinging that is going to occur.
Run a normal campaign, capture the base Democratic Party and the independents who are not going
to be happy with Sinema swinging right.
The numbers are there.
In this case, the Independent is probably going to take more votes away from the Republican
candidate and apparently intends to, like that's the plan.
So we'll have to wait and see, but as far as races that are going to be popcorn worthy
and at the same time actually important, this is probably going to be the big one in the
Senate.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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