Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/10/08 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau addresses foreign policy questions about recent events, disputes the connection between aid to Iran and the events, and speculates on potential future moves and escalation.
Foreign policy analysts
Context on the broader implications of the events and potential future outcomes.
#ForeignPolicy #Iran #MiddleEast #US #PoliticalAnalysis
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bob again.
So today, we are going to talk about foreign policy,
and we're going to talk about your foreign policy questions
about today's events.
There are four of them,
and we're just gonna kinda go through them
and answer them in,
basically in order of those that came in
most frequently first.
Okay, so starting off,
the most frequently asked question about this was did the $6 billion provided to Iran cause
this?
There's a real easy way to answer this, but I think it might be more illuminating to run
through a scenario.
Let's say, hypothetically speaking, that Iran got the aid, the medicine, the food, got all
of that stuff.
The day news broke, the day the deal was done, they got all of it.
In more or less three weeks, Iran secretly sold billions, then laundered and transferred
the money to get the weapons, then got those into that area, which is very secure, all
in the matter of just a few weeks.
Seems really unlikely, right?
It would also kind of indicate that you believe
that what happened today
was planned
in a matter of weeks.
Seems really unlikely.
It would be even more unlikely if the money was still sitting in cutter.
Now, that did not cause this.
Now there's an obvious response to that is that, well, if they knew the money was coming
so they used money they already had, yeah, they might have known an extra week, still
not enough time.
And that argument would presuppose that Iran has been hard up for cash to fund this kind
of stuff?
That's not the case, as evidenced by the last, I don't know, half a century.
This is a manufactured talking point to provoke outrage at home.
who presented that as fact, I would be very leery of their foreign policy opinions in
the future.
Okay so the next question, this seems different from other flare-ups, is it?
Oh yeah, oh yeah.
Generally they're spontaneous.
Generally the flare-ups are spontaneous.
It's a cyclical thing.
The outrage builds.
There's a back and forth.
The outrage builds.
And then, boom, something happens.
What just happened there?
No.
No, that was planned.
That was coordinated very well.
It wasn't a spur-of-the-moment thing.
That was incredibly well coordinated.
That's not something you just throw together.
It's not something that just happens.
So that does make it different.
OK, the next one.
Given the US Western desire to get out of the Middle East
and have a multipolar Middle East,
what's the likely next foreign policy move?
And this was asked quite a few times.
And nobody took something into account
when asking the question.
There's two questions there, really.
Because you have the question of,
if the United States and the West
was actually committed to getting out
of the Middle East, what would be the next foreign policy move?
And then you have the question of,
since a whole bunch of Western politicians
decided to stand on those who were lost
and make a bunch of political points, what's the next move?
If the West was committed to the idea of getting out
of the Middle East and allowing it
to become a multipolar region where they just,
it's your thing.
You all deal with it.
Israel's in the Middle East.
If that strategy is adopted and comes into play,
the U.S. move, the Western move, would be to treat the Middle East the way it treated
Africa for the last 50 years when something like this would happen.
Thoughts and prayers.
But because of the political situation at home, is that what's going to happen?
No, no, definitely not.
I would suggest the U.S. move here would be to cut a check to Israel for those who are
not familiar with the dynamics.
That would be my guess as to what's going to happen.
Okay and the last one, is there a potential for this to widen?
I'm going to say yes, I'm going to say yes.
I don't think it's a huge potential, but this was very well coordinated.
I think whether or not it widens depends on the next 36 hours and how things shape up
on the ground.
I wouldn't say that it's even even odds.
I think it's probably not as likely that it widens.
But it's not one of those situations where I'm like, that's not likely, when I really
mean that's almost impossible.
I don't think it's likely, but it's definitely something to watch.
And there we go.
Those are your questions.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
So have a good day.
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