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Published | 2023/10/18 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Biden's trip to Israel has transformed into a high-stakes mission to prevent a full-ground offensive, with US foreign policy implications resting on his success in influencing Israel.
Diplomatic observers
The nuances of diplomatic negotiations and the potential ripple effects of Biden's trip on regional stability are best understood through the full transcript.
#Biden #Israel #USforeignpolicy #Diplomacy #MiddleEast #Peacebuilding
Well, howdy there, internet people.
Let's above again.
So today we are going to talk about Biden's trip again,
because things have changed.
And it's not just the itinerary that changed.
That's what people are really focusing on,
but there's way more to it.
It now has the potential to impact US foreign policy
and how the United States is seen
throughout the region.
Before, it was politically risky, but a moral imperative.
Now, it's a moral imperative, and he can't fail.
He can't.
So because of recent events, and let me just go ahead and stop,
until I know, and by know, I mean have evidence,
I don't have a comment on what happened other than to say it's horrible.
But because of those events, it appears that the president will just be meeting with representatives
from Israel.
So he's going over there meeting with Israel and not meeting with Arab leaders because
there in a period of mourning. His whole mission in life now for this trip is to
limit the Israeli ground offensive into Gaza. That's it. That's the only thing
that matters. If he can do that, it's still a success. If he can't do that, he
shouldn't go. That's how high stakes it has become. A lot of people had
asked because I was like, trust me it's a good thing that they're looking at
other options. The initial plan for the offensive into Gaza from Israel was
just full-on, massive. It would have been horrible for everybody, but it would have
been most horrible for the civilians. It would have been really, really bad. They
seem to be opening up to the idea of a more limited response. The more limited
it is, the less horrible it is for the civilians.
Biden's goal should be to encourage the least intrusive option that they have on the table.
If he can do that, he can walk away from this and other countries will see the United States
showing up and saying, hey, calm down.
Don't go overboard with this.
That's good for the US.
If he goes
and
he can't do that or worse,
they go with a full-ground offensive while he's there,
that's really bad
for American foreign policy.
Because even if he's in the room
screaming, don't do this,
the appearance is that he showed up and then it happened.
That's not going to go over well.
So his entire
trip
it became a whole lot more high stakes
and it became one where there's
It's kind of all or nothing. It's an imperative that he convince Israel not to go with a full-on
ground offensive. The good news is that Israel appears to be leaning that way anyway, but we
don't know. So this is one of those things where it's about optics. You know
when we talked about it yesterday, there were foreign policy people like before
the video was even out, as soon as the the list of where he was going was made
people were like why is he meeting with the president of the Palestinian
authority. And that's not like a slight, it's just it's just a realistic
evaluation of the situation. Foreign policy is about power, doesn't have a
lot. But going over there and not meeting with the president of the
Palestinian Authority, that looks really really bad. So it was on the list. Now
he's going over there, he's going to Israel, and he's not meeting a lot of
representatives from outside. He has to be successful here. The other question
that kept coming in about the trip is, you know, concern for his safety. Don't
worry about that, he'll be fine. I know with a lot of the rhetoric right now,
Right now, there are a lot of people that have been turned into cartoon villains.
They understand what would happen. Every plane on those carriers would be airborne in seconds.
They aren't... that does not seem like a likely outcome.
Nobody's strategy is served by by going after him, so that really shouldn't be a
concern but his trip became a whole lot more important and I'm assuming since
it's still on he thinks he can do it because otherwise his advisors would
definitely be telling him you can't go now so we'll have to wait and see how it
plays out, but it definitely took on a whole lot more meaning, and he has to be, he has
to be able to pull it off.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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