Input | Output |
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Link | Youtube |
Published | 2023/11/20 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Reports of a potential deal for a pause in conflict face challenges in finalizing logistical details, with a short window for peace efforts to make progress amidst the looming threat of further cycles of violence.
Peacemakers, activists, policymakers
The emotional tone and nuances of Beau's delivery can be best experienced by watching the full transcript.
#ConflictResolution #PeaceEfforts #Qatar #Negotiations #Ceasefire
Well, howdy there, internet people.
Let's bow again.
So today, we are going to talk about developments with the
deal, the potential deal, and what comes after.
Because a pause isn't the end of it.
And we're going to talk about the developments, because we
do have some new information.
If you missed the reporting, because a lot of this happened
the weekend, basically the news broke that there was a deal. A tentative deal
had been reached and it would start a five-day pause because we don't use the
term ceasefire apparently and it would lead to the return of more than 50
captives. That was the news that went out. Almost as soon as that news went out
both the US and Israeli governments were like no that's not the case we don't
have a deal. And it left a lot of people wondering what that meant and we ran
through the options and it looks like that they've got to work out the finer
points. The reason I'm saying this is because the Prime Minister of Qatar
basically said that. So that there were some minor challenges ahead. The
challenges that remain in the negotiations are very minor compared to
the bigger challenges. They are more logistical. They are more practical. So
taking that out of foreign policy speak, the agreement, the idea of a pause,
captives going home, that's worked out now. The logistical and practical,
that means date and time the pause starts. That means how the captives are
being transported, who is picking them up, whether they're going through an
intermediary, like maybe Qatar. There's a whole bunch of little stuff like that.
What constitutes a violation of the pause? That's the stuff they have to work
out. That's not really hard. So theoretically we could see movement on
this, this week, which would be ideal, you know? So that's the news there.
Now, a pause, a ceasefire, isn't peace. It's for a set period of time. During that
period, the field commanders are going to be gathering intelligence, creating lists.
They're going to be regrouping to start fighting as soon as it ends.
That means those who are working for peace, that's their window.
However long that is, that's their window.
If they don't get it during that period, the odds are that it'll all start back up.
It'll look exactly like it does now.
And that clock is going to wind down very, very quickly.
So that's the state of it at this moment.
And if you don't know, Qatar has been doing a whole lot of the heavy lifting on this.
Basically, the US is providing, let's call it encouragement, and Qatar is facilitating.
So the Prime Minister saying this and also going out of his way to say, hey, you know,
the reports talking about it before we say anything about it, those are bad, that's kind
of a good sign.
So hopefully we will hear more about this very, very quickly.
But understand it's not the end.
It's not the end.
In fact, it is without a real commitment from a whole bunch of major players, there will
be another cycle after this.
And that's already been determined.
It would take something huge to change that.
So not just are we not talking about it not being the end of this cycle, the groundwork
is already laid for the next one.
So those people who are trying to come up with a solution with some way for the fighting
to stop, something like that.
They have a very, very short window to operate in.
So we will keep you updated as more information becomes available.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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