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Published | 2023/11/28 |
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Beau says:
Israel's agreement to a pause is strategic for safety and planning, with comparisons to Fallujah and concerns over escalating conflict, amid hopes for a lasting peace framework.
Peacemakers, strategists, activists.
The full transcript provides deeper insights into the complex dynamics and decision-making processes shaping the current situation in Israel and Palestine.
Well, howdy there, internet people.
Let's bow again.
So today, we are going to talk about two more days.
We're going to talk about two more days.
And we are going to answer a question that has come in
repeatedly, all day today, once the news broke.
And if you missed the news, four days has turned into six.
The pause was successfully extended.
So that has occurred.
Looks like it's going to hold.
At least right now, that's what it looks like.
There are people who are working to extend it further,
and there are people who are working to turn it
into a more permanent thing with a framework to move forward.
We'll see how that works out.
The question that came in was, I understand
why the Palestinian side agreed to this, but why did Israel?
A number of reasons, probably, all working together.
The first is the obvious.
They want their people back, and this is a relatively safe way to do it.
So that definitely factors into it.
The other is they might be using it to try to figure out how to get out.
We talked about it before the ground offensive started.
Generally speaking, it's a good idea to know what the plan to exit is.
If you're an American, you are very familiar with this because the U.S. almost never has
a plan to leave and it causes issues.
So they might be trying to use this time to figure that out.
The other thing is, it's being overshadowed, the other motivating reason is being overshadowed,
but it probably has something to do with it as well.
Prior to the ground offensive starting, people asked, what's it going to look like?
Fallujah, it's going to look like the second battle of Fallujah, it's the only thing it
can look like.
looks like the second battle of Fallujah. And if you don't know, you're not
familiar with it, that was the worst battle in the entire war in Iraq for the
US. And that's what it's like. The ground offensive didn't start right
away. It started towards the end of October and there's been a few days of
pause since it started. You're looking at roughly three weeks of it being active.
Three to four. The second battle of Fallujah was six to seven weeks. Israel
Israel has lost almost as many as the U.S. did in that period.
That type of fighting, as we talked about, it's the worst.
It's the worst for everybody.
For the soldier, for the civilian, it is the worst for everybody.
So losses on the Israeli side, they're obviously being overshadowed by the civilian losses.
People aren't really talking about them.
But it is on par with Fallujah.
In fact, it seems to be a little bit worse.
The rhetoric and the statements that have come out from the politicians are kind of
indicating that they want the military to go south next and move south.
I would imagine that there are a whole bunch of military commanders who are hoping that
the pause gets extended.
If they move south, it's going to get worse.
We have talked about it in relationship to different conflicts.
I know we talked about it in regards to Ukraine.
Israeli speaking, it is wise to leave your opposition a way out.
You have to leave them a way to withdraw.
There is nowhere for the Palestinian forces to go.
So if the Israelis move south, the Palestinian forces will put up incredibly stiff resistance
because they don't have a choice.
There's nothing that they can do.
can't leave. And the objective that Israel has set is, you know, the total
destruction of that organization. They're going to read that as them as
individuals. They are going to fight and it will be very stiff fighting. So
So between those statements and that rhetoric and how things have progressed so far, I would
imagine that there are at least a few military commanders who are kind of like, maybe we
should figure something else out.
But I don't know if they're going to be listened to.
Most times in this kind of situation, they aren't.
kind of ignored. But those seem to be the most likely reasons, and there's also a bit of
international politics at play. As long as the Palestinian forces are willing to return people
for peace. If Israel goes ahead with its ground offensive while that's on the
table, the outrage that is all over the place, it's gonna be amplified and they
know that. That may have something to do with it too. Make no mistake about it, the
primary reason is probably this is a way to get these people back and from
From the Israeli point of view, they have the initiative.
So after the pause, if they chose, they could restart everything.
It's not good to have your tempo disrupted, but it's also not necessarily something that
would derail an entire operation, especially one that has to be slow
moving anyway. So that's why Israel would agree to it. I feel like there is an
expectation that both sides have of the other, that the other is totally
unreasonable. I don't know that that's the case. I know that due to the
fighting and due to everything that has happened, everybody has their reason for
saying the other side is completely unreasonable. I get that. But also
remember that this is this is something that oftentimes is decided by committees
and as long as there is one person on that committee trying to voice a reason
it'll often went out. So the fact that Israel agreed to this, it shouldn't be a
surprise, especially when they maintain the option of just restarting it after
the exchanges are over. But that's where we're at right now.
hopefully those people working on a more permanent framework are are successful
you know blessed are the peacemakers type of thing anyway it's just a
thought, y'all have a good day.
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