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Published | 2023/12/17 |
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Beau says:
US diplomatic efforts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict face significant challenges, including finding broad support for governance in Gaza and forming an international peacekeeping coalition.
Diplomatic stakeholders
In-depth analysis and context on the complex dynamics of US diplomatic efforts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
#US #DiplomaticEfforts #IsraeliPalestinianConflict #InternationalCoalition #Peacekeeping
Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bo again.
So today we are going to talk about state.
We're gonna talk about US diplomatic efforts,
how they're going, the route they appear to be taking,
and what it would take for that to actually work now
that we have seen a little bit more about the responses
to the different parties involved.
we're gonna do this because I got this message. I just watched Sullivan talking
about his plans to meet with the head of the PA, the PA in this case being the
Palestinian Authority, and the description of the plan with admittedly
few details sounds like exactly what you described. You seem to think things have
gone too far for that to work. Can you do the let's just say it's true thing and
tell us what you think it would take to make their plan work.
Okay, so quick recap of what the plan is, and now this is pretty well
confirmed at this point. It's not just me speculating. The U.S. desire is for the
Israeli offensive to be successful against Hamas. At that point they want
the Palestinian Authority to reassert governance over Gaza and then they have
to find some kind of security arrangement. The original plan during the
speculation when I was talking about it was an international coalition to stand
between the two sides for an extended period and pump in a bunch of aid. And understand when I say
a bunch, I mean a bunch, we're talking about billions here. Okay, so what has happened?
The reception to the idea of the Palestinian Authority taking over Gaza and being the
governing, administrating body there, it wasn't warm. You know, there is still the
question of the effectiveness of the Israeli offensive and whether or not
it's actually going to create more, it's going to force generate for the other
side, which I think it very well might, but assuming that doesn't happen, there's
nothing the US can do about that, but assuming that doesn't happen, which again
I'm skeptical of, the rest of the plan, the current head of the Palestinian
authority, maybe it's time for retirement. The thing is, he's got a lot of support,
fervent support, but it's among a small group of people. For this to work, you
would need somebody or multiple somebody's with a broad base of support,
not just really enthusiastic support among a small group. So I would say you
would probably need a dynamic figure from Gaza, not somebody from the West
Bank, to do the administration, to be the top person there. And yeah, he would
probably need to retire. And the thing is, that's not out of the question. The
man's 88 years old, so maybe if he understands the stakes, maybe maybe he
decides to. I don't think that part's impossible. The US position on who is
going to provide the security arrangements, it doesn't seem like they're
having a lot of luck finding international partners willing to put
their troops between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
There is talk of using Palestinian security services to do that and even the U.S. providing
training to them.
First, I mean, that's a political landmine, like there is so much that, yeah, there's
a lot of issues with that.
The other thing is, I don't foresee that force actually being strong enough to stand
between the two sides, and there's also the fact that I'm fairly certain Israel's just
going to be like, yeah, no, that's not going to work.
I don't think that aspect of it is going to happen.
They're going to need the international coalition to act as peacekeepers.
They're going to have to build it and build it big.
I don't think there's an alternative to that.
I don't think there's a Plan B, and it's even more complicated than we've really talked
about because we have focused on the Arab states that are reluctant to commit their
own troops to that.
Understand for this to work, you need forces that have the best interest of the Palestinians
at heart and that would be received well by the Palestinian side, but you also need partners
that would, that the Israeli side would be comfortable with. It's a huge ask.
Like that's, I think that is where they're going to run into real issues, is
trying to find that force. I don't believe the US, the US population has the
appetite for that. I don't think that's going to happen. I do not believe that the
left or the right in the United States would actually be willing to sign off on
that in any large numbers. That would be an incredibly unpopular decision. But
there would have to be at least some representation of countries that
Israel views as allies for it to get approval from that side and then by
default you have to have Arab nations involved who actually care about the
Palestinians. If you can't have that then there's no point in doing it because it
is going to turn into more masters of the universe carving up the world stuff.
The rough sketch, sure, I mean it's a good idea, but it's also not new.
This is a rehash of something else that didn't actually work.
My guess is there are people who are looking at it and they're like, okay, in point of
fact it didn't work but I'm convinced the theory is sound and they're going to
try it again. It's not a bad idea but for it to work they need all of the pieces
in place. There's no way it works if you can't get every step along
the way. I am very skeptical of that first step, of Israel actually being
able to degrade the combat effectiveness. I am very skeptical of that occurring, at
least anytime soon. And the longer it goes on, the less likely I think it is
that it really occurs. As far as the Palestinian Authority asserting
governance? Yeah, it would need to be restructured. But I don't believe that, I
don't think that the people involved, the people that might have to, you know,
retire or take a different position, I don't think that they would be
necessarily, like, ardently opposed to that because of the stakes. So that part
seems easiest to me, but then they've got to get that
international coalition and that that's going to be hard because there is not a
track record of success in this foreign policy hotspot and nobody wants to sign
up for something and put their troops in a situation like that where there's not
a guarantee of success. Again, this is the most complicated situation on the
foreign policy stage. It's worth a shot. It is certainly, attempting that is
certainly better than the status quo, but understand it's a long shot because on
top of everything we just discussed as far as the logistics, you have to
actually be able to broker a lasting peace between the two sides, and that
peace is not going to make anybody happy. The talking points that have energized
energized the bases in both locations, none of those are actually going to
happen, not if they want peace. There is, there was a sign, a very, I see as
hopeful, there was a person with a lot of connections to Hamas that kind of
indicated maybe it was time to recognize Israel. I don't know how widespread that
sentiment is, but it being said publicly, I mean that's something. That is
something. It shows some willingness to actually try to build the lasting
peace, but that's just one person on one side. There's a lot to this. I know
people want an immediate resolution, I don't know that that's likely.
This isn't a simple situation.
It takes a lot of moving parts coming from a lot of different countries and they all
have to actually be committed to it because if it starts and they're not committed to
it will fail. They have to be willing to see it through, and it will be decades. It
will be a very long process of hopefully a lot of boredom standing between the
two sides, but getting countries to commit to something that will be
decades, that's hard, especially when there's also going to have to be a
massive fund for reconstruction, relief, it's huge. It's huge. It's not
impossible but it takes a lot of things going, everything going right for it to
happen. And if it doesn't there's going to be another cycle. That's the
reality of it.
Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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